Devils Bottom 6 Continues To Be an Offensive Liability
While they're good at preventing goals, the New Jersey Devils are getting next to nothing offensively from their bottom 6.
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It's heightened because of the New Jersey Devils' current three-game losing streak, but the lack of, well, anything, from the team's bottom six has gotten to a point where it's a major talking point among fans on social media.
I understand it because I agree with it. The Devils' bottom six, specifically the third line, has been an absolute black hole lately. It's not going to cost the team a playoff spot. The Devils' top-six scorers will get it going again because they're too good to remain quiet for long. But the bottom six needs some serious help, and it's unlikely to come internally.
Devils' Offseason Additions Have Been a Mixed Bag
General manager Tom Fitzgerald set out to improve the Devils' bottom six this summer, signing Stefan Noesen and Tomáš Tatar in free agency and acquiring Paul Cotter in the trade that sent Alexander Holtz to the Vegas Golden Knights.
Some of those moves have worked out, while others have not. There aren't enough good things to say about Noesen and how he's played for the Devils. He's already potted 16 goals — a career-high — putting him on pace for 32 and even locking him into a top-six role.
Cotter looked like he would work out early in the season, but it seems both teams have lost the Holtz trade for now. Cotter totaled seven goals and 12 points across his first 19 games, but we probably should have known regression was coming since he was shooting 26.9 percent.
Since then, Cotter has just two points in his last 21 games. Part of his struggles aren't necessarily his fault, though. Head coach Sheldon Keefe seems intent on keeping Cotter on the third line when it's clear he's a fourth-liner.
Cotter's underlying numbers have declined significantly from the start of the season, too. He has a Net Rating of minus-1.6 and has particularly struggled offensively, totaling an Offensive Net Rating of minus-2.3. Role matters, so pushing him down the lineup might help get more out of him.
The one option Keefe has is to flip Tatar and Cotter. I know he doesn't seem to be the biggest fan of Tatar, but he can still drive play; he has an expected goals share (xG%) of 57.89 percent. At the very least, he can help the third line win possession, which they're not doing right now.
Not every offseason move pans out, and I'm still optimistic Cotter can have a better impact if he's playing a more suitable role. However, it's not just the offseason moves contributing to the Devils' bottom-six struggles.
Devils Not Getting Enough From Returnees
Sure, some of the Devils' offseason additions up front have been a mixed bag, but regression/stagnation from a couple of returnees has amplified the need to fix the bottom six.
Most notably, Erik Haula's game has seemingly fallen off a cliff. Like Cotter, Haula got off to a solid start this season, totaling four goals and nine points in his first 16 games. Since then, he has just two points in 24 contests.
Haula's underlying numbers look OK; he has a 52.59 xG% this season. But a deeper dive shows he's struggling mightily, specifically offensively. He has a Net Rating of minus-2.1, with his offense worth a Net Rating of minus-2.6. His RAPM chart doesn't paint a pretty picture, either:
There are a couple of problems with having Haula as the third-line center. One) He's never been the fleetest of foot, and it seems he's gotten a bit slower. Two) He's never been great in transition, and with how the third line is currently constructed, there are no facilitators on that unit.
That includes Dawson Mercer, who has not rebounded from a disappointing 2023-24 season. He has nine goals and 19 points in 41 games — a 38-point pace over 82 games. Truthfully, a 38-point pace for a third liner is decent, but the problem is no one else is producing anything from that unit.
Another issue with placing Mercer with Haula and Cotter is that nobody can create their own offense, and as we've seen from Mercer in the past, he needs to be with Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier to produce.
It's also been tough sledding for Curtis Lazar and Nathan Bastian. Granted, both have missed time with injuries, so their situations are different than Haula and Mercer's. Still, Lazar has two points in 16 games, while Bastian has five in 23 contests.
Lazar and Bastian don't need to be high-end scorers. Most fourth-liners are good for 10-15 points a season, but the Devils could use more from them.
The Solution Will Likely Come Through a Trade
In hindsight, it seems the Devils and Fitzgerald focused too much on adding physicality and grit to the bottom six and not enough on scoring. Who knows what their free-agent big board looked like, but someone like Kiefer Sherwood would have been a better use of cap space than Tatar; Sherwood has 12 goals and 19 points this season and a cap hit of $1.5 million.
So, what's the fix? Someone has to step up eventually, but the real solution is making a move via the trade market. Right now, this Devils bottom six is not constructed to be successful. Third lines don't need to be scoring lines, but they need to have some scoring upside, and the Devils' third line is an offensive black hole.
The prospect of adding Arseni Gritsyuk is exciting, but he probably won't be here until some time in April if he does sign with the Devils; his KHL contract expires in April.
Fitzgerald will have to make a move before then, and perhaps sooner than later. He'll have options, but he might have to up his game because the Devils' third line is in dire straights, and it doesn't look like there are many internal solutions, if any.
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