5 Devils Bounce-Back Candidates for 2024-25
Injuries a season ago give the New Jersey Devils some prime bounce-back candidates for the 2024-25 season.
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You'd guess after a season like the one the New Jersey Devils had in 2023-24, they'd have more than a few rebound candidates heading into the new season.
Not all of it was underperformance. In fact, much of it was injury-related for a team decimated by injuries a season ago. Let's look at five players who have bounce-back potential this coming season.
Tomáš Tatar
Tomáš Tatar didn't spend the 2023-24 season with the Devils, but he did struggle quite a bit between the Colorado Avalanche and Seattle Kraken, totaling just nine goals and 24 points in 70 games.
Fit does matter, and it sure doesn't seem like Tatar was a fit with the Avalanche. His possession numbers were well underwater, and he totaled just one goal and nine points in 27 games before getting dealt to the Kraken.
Tatar's numbers did improve in Seattle, and he thrived with some of their top-six forwards like Matty Beniers, Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle. His five-on-five scoring was solid, averaging 1.72 points per 60 minutes with the Kraken.
The Devils will probably give Tatar a chance to rekindle his chemistry with Nico Hischier to begin 2024-25. Those two dominated as linemates in Tatar's two seasons in New Jersey, posting an expected goals share (xG%) above 60 percent.
The fact Tatar showed well with the Kraken's top-six forwards makes me think he still has something left in the tank. That means pairing him up with Hischier again might work, increasing Tatar's odds of bouncing back, something the Devils need him to do.
Dougie Hamilton
One of the injury-plagued Devils a season ago, Hamilton is a prime bounce-back candidate if there are no lingering issues from his torn pectoral.
Hamilton played in just 20 games last season, but was quite productive, totaling five goals and 16 points — a 21-goal, 66-point pace over 82 games. Remember that this came without him getting first-unit power-play minutes since former coach Lindy Ruff had Luke Hughes quarterbacking PP1.
That will change to start for the first few weeks of the regular season since Luke Hughes is out 6-8 weeks with a shoulder injury, putting him on target to return in late October. Hamilton will get those first-unit minutes, and I expect him to thrive in that role again.
If so, don't be surprised if Sheldon Keefe keeps Hamilton on the Devils' first power-play unit, with Hughes moving to quarterback the second. That could make for another highly productive season from Hamilton, especially since he will likely continue to dominate at five-on-five.
Timo Meier
Timo Meier had a difficult two-thirds of 2023-24, but he found his game to close the season, totaling over a point per game in his final 26 contests.
Meier was banged up most of last season, and he, too, had shoulder surgery this offseason. By the looks of it, he's good to go entering camp, and I expect him to get off to a better start to the regular season if he makes it through the preseason unscathed.
The Devils can't afford to have Meier total just 11 goals and 26 points through his first 46 games as he did a season ago. There'll be problems if that's the case, but something tells me he will excel under Keefe. That may just be a vibes thing, but look at how some of the Toronto Maple Leafs' top players performed under Keefe.
Of course, Meier is not Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, or William Nylander, but Keefe always got the best out of his top players. He even turned Michael Bunting into a 20-plus goal scorer and 60-plus point player. That probably bodes well for Meier to get off to a hot start and continue it this season.
Dawson Mercer
Dawson Mercer may remain unsigned heading into training camp, but whenever he does agree to a new contract, he immediately becomes one of the Devils' top bounce-back candidates.
Mercer's microstats fell off a ledge last season, with his shooting and passing metrics all noticeably worse than 2022-23 and even his rookie season, and he created almost zero offense off the rush.
But despite all that and having a down season in 2023-24, Mercer still totaled 20 goals. Even with signing Tatar and bringing in Kevin Labanc on a PTO, there's a spot for Mercer to lose in the top six.
This is a big season for Mercer, and I think he knows that, too. The odds are he signs a bridge deal when the time comes, but he could have been getting a payday had he not struggled a season ago. It's one of those things you can't quantify, but I'm sure that serves as extra motivation to get a lucrative contract two or three years from now.
Jack Hughes
Last but not least, there's Jack Hughes. His bounce-back potential is almost solely due to injuries because the production was there when he played last season.
Hughes totaled 74 points in 62 games — a 98-point pace over 82 games. And that was while playing on one shoulder post-All-Star break. As a result, some of Hughes' impacts were not what you would've expected from him. But it's probably safe to say that injuries were a significant reason for that.
Now, with his shoulder surgically repaired, hopefully those issues are a thing of the past, and he can return to being the elite play-driving forward he was pre-injury.
Devils' Stars Rebounding Would Put Them in Good Shape
I didn't include him here because I wrote a full post on why I think Jonas Siegenthaler might be a bounce-back candidate, but his 2023-24 was a career-worst year that he probably won't repeat. A healthy Hamilton goes a long way for him, as they've both played very well as a pair in their three years as Devils.
There are quite a few bounce-back candidates for the Devils heading into 2024-25. And the good news is that most have good odds of bouncing back, especially Meier, Hughes and Hamilton. If those players perform to their levels, the Devils should be in good shape in the playoff race.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, microstats from Corey Sznajder/JFresh Hockey