Devils vs. Canadiens: 3 Keys to Victory
A well-rested New Jersey Devils squad should be able to take advantage of a Canadiens team playing their third game in four nights
After another three-day layoff, the New Jersey Devils return to the ice tonight to take on the Montreal Canadiens to begin what will be a busy week. The Devils are looking to build off their 5-4 win against the New York Islanders on Friday, while the Canadiens have started 3-1-1 and defeated the Buffalo Sabres 3-1 last night. Here are three keys to victory for the Devils.
Don't Sleep on the Canadiens
The Canadiens may end up in the draft lottery at season's end, but they've gotten off to a solid start, and it's not just their record of 3-1-1. Though we're still dealing with small sample sizes, they've played well at five-on-five.
The Canadiens have a 52.25 expected goals percentage through four games, which is in the top half of the league. They've generated chances at a decent clip and have done well to suppress them defensively.
That's why the Devils must get off to a fast start as they did against the Islanders on Friday. At least to begin this season, they can't take the Canadiens lightly. But even though that's the case, a couple of things are working in the Devils' favor.
One) The Canadiens are in the second half of a back-to-back and will be playing their third game in four nights. The Devils have had three days off, so they should be the fresher team from the opening faceoff. There isn't a reason not to be.
Two) While the Canadiens are playing well at five-on-five, they have a ridiculous .978 save percentage at that game state. That is not unsustainable in the least bit, and the Devils have the firepower to help begin that regression, especially since they're due to score more at five-on-five. That's why coming hot out of the gate must be a priority once again.
Devils Have a Decisive Special Teams Advantage
For as decent as the Canadiens have been at five-on-five, the same cannot be said about their special teams. They're converting on just 15 percent of their power plays and killing off 79.3 percent of the man advantages they've faced.
The Canadiens' lack of success on the power play isn't bad luck, either. They're not generating much in the way of quality chances, and it doesn't help that they won't have Kirby Dach, who's out for the season with a torn ACL and MCL.
Likewise, the Canadiens' penalty kill has been bleeding quality chance after quality chance. They're giving up the most expected goals per 60 minutes in the NHL, and though that's in a small sample size, this could be another opportunity for the Devils' power play to feast.
New Jersey's man advantage has been lights out to start this season, converting on 42.9 percent of its chances after going 4/5 against the Islanders. Obviously, that's not sustainable, either. But at least for one more game, they're in another good spot to succeed.
And just like the Islanders game was a get-right spot for the Devils' penalty kill, the Canadiens' power play offers New Jersey a chance to build off the PK success they found against the Isles.
Devils Could Exploit Banged-Up Canadiens Defense
Canadiens head coach Marty St. Louis has used Mike Matheson and David Savard as his top pair to begin the season. That would've been an advantage for the Devils, but Savard will be out indefinitely after a big shot block against the Sabres last night.
It appears Gustav Lindström will take his place in the lineup after getting called up this morning. With Savard out, the Canadiens will be down two of their top-four defenseman, with Kaiden Guhle also out with an injury.
The Canadiens won't hold a morning skate since they're on the second half of a back-to-back, so new defense pairs will have to wait until warmups. Either way, there's an opportunity for the Devils to exploit the Canadiens' defense at five-on-five since they're down two key members.
Ondrej Palát, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt feasted as a trio against the Islanders, while Tyler Toffoli, Jack Hughes and Timo Meier fared quite well themselves. With no Guhle and Savard and the Canadiens playing their third game on four nights, it's a good spot for the Devils' top-six to thrive at five-on-five.
Projected Lineups
Devils
Tyler Toffoli - Jack Hughes - Timo Meier
Ondrej Palát - Nico Hischier - Jesper Bratt
Dawson Mercer - Erik Haula - Alex Holtz
Curtis Lazar - Michael McLeod - Nathan Bastian
Jonas Siegenthaler - Dougie Hamilton
Kevin Bahl - John Marino
Brendan Smith - Luke Hughes
Vitek Vanecek
Montreal Canadiens
Cole Caufield - Nick Suzuki - Rafaël Harvey-Pinard
Josh Anderson - Alex Newhook - Juraj Slafkovsky
Tanner Pearson - Sean Monahan - Brendan Gallagher
Michael Pezzetta - Jake Evans - Jesse Ylönen
Mike Matheson - Johnathan Kovacevic
Jordan Harris - Justin Barron
Arber Xhekaj - Gustav Lindström
Samuel Montembault
Tonight's game begins at 7:15 p.m. and will be televised on MSGSN2 and part of ESPN's Frozen Frenzy across ESPN, ESPN 2 and ESPN+, with all 32 teams in action tonight.
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