Todd McLellan Checks Many Boxes for Devils' Coaching Vacancy
Todd McLellan's Kings teams were highly effective off the rush and so much more than the 1-3-1 neutral zone structure.
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Todd McLellan has been an NHL head coach for a long time. His last couple of stops did not work out in the end, but the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings did have some success under him, specifically the latter.
There's been a lot made about the Kings' style of hockey and how they play a 1-3-1 neutral zone structure, even before they moved on from McLellan in favor of assistant coach Jim Hiller earlier this season. But there is much more to how the Kings played under McLellan.
If you're under the impression the Devils would revert to the NZ trap days of Jacques Lemaire under McLellan, that's unlikely to happen. Let's dive into the former Kings coach's style of hockey and why he would be a fit for the Devils.
Kings Excelled in Many Areas Under McLellan
Though the Kings have struggled to advance past the first round of the playoffs over the last few seasons, at least to this point, McLellan helped the team arrive earlier than expected.
The Kings first made the playoffs under McLellan in 2021-22, finishing with 99 points and a 44-27-11 record. The following year, they totaled 47 wins and 104 points to finish third in the Pacific for a second consecutive season. They lost to the Edmonton Oilers in the first round in back-to-back years, but they were better than expected sooner than most thought.
McLellan's Kings teams, as has been the case for most of his coaching career, posted good to excellent five-on-five numbers. They finished the 2021-22 campaign with an expected goals share (xG%) of 52.99 percent and followed that up with a 52.42 xG% in 2022-23.
This is where the Kings' five-on-five numbers get interesting, though. You may have thought they were a low-event, five-on-five team under McLellan, but nope. The Kings generated 2.75 xGs per 60 in 2021-22 and 2.70 per 60 last season. Before the Kings fired McLellan this season, they averaged 2.95 xGs per 60 offensively.
To better understand the Kings under McLellan, let's look at their team microstats from the previous two seasons. The Kings were among the best rush teams in the league in 2021-22, ranking fourth in rush shots. They also excelled in transition, ranking second in possession exits and fifth and eighth in possession entries percentage and possession entries.
The Kings' microstats offensively looked pretty similar in 2022-23. They ranked fifth in rush shots and fourth in rush shots against. They were also a top-three team in possession entries and possession entry percentage. And they were highly effective in exiting the defensive zone cleanly.
That may surprise you as it did for me looking up McLellan, but the Kings were a highly effective rush team that had a generally diverse offense. The Devils want to continue playing that way under their next coach, and there's plenty to suggest that would occur under McLellan.
While the Kings' offensive style under McLellan may have surprised you, most think of his teams as defensively structured and disciplined. That holds true based on the team's microstats under him, especially in 2022-23.
The Kings were excellent at defending the rush under McLellan, something the Devils struggled with mightily this past season. They denied teams of clean possession entries, and they were elite at defending passes, ranking first in multiple categories (2022-23 season):
There's plenty to like about McLellan as a fit for the Devils. They will not become a terrible dump-and-chase and neutral-zone trap snoozefest. They will play off the rush and likely be quite effective doing so while being a very structured and disciplined defensive team.
Concerns With McLellan
McLellan has been an NHL head coach for the better part of the last 15-16 years, but he hasn't had much playoff success. The furthest he got with the San Jose Sharks was the Western Conference Finals (x2), and he lost in the second round to the Anaheim Ducks in his second season with the Oilers.
As mentioned, the Kings got bounced by the Oilers in each of the last two seasons, though I don't think anyone would blame McLellan and the Kings for that. It's not like they were the favorites in either series, and they did take the Oilers to seven games in 2022.
In that sense, McLellan seems like the safe pick. He will likely get the Devils to the playoffs, but how far would they go? At the same time, you could have made that argument about Paul Maurice, who went 20 years between Stanley Cup Finals appearances and with many playoff failures and misses in the years in between.
Most panned the Florida Panthers for hiring Maurice in favor of Andrew Brunette based on Maurice's results before taking that job, especially with the Winnipeg Jets. But it's hard to argue with the results in Florida. Maurice inherited plenty of talent with the Panthers, and so would McLellan with the Devils. Still, the lack of playoff success is certainly a reason to give pause.
It's also fair to wonder how much McLellan would collaborate with the front office in decision-making for lineups, etc. Is he open to analytics, something general manager Tom Fitzgerald seems to want? Only he will know by interviewing McLellan.
Still, McLellan should be among the Devils' top choices to replace former head coach Lindy Ruff. He will not turn the Devils into a boring, defensive team. They will get the best of both worlds under him. They will be a highly efficient rush team, which is how the Devils need to continue playing, and they will become an exceptionally sound and disciplined defensive team.
And for those who want a tougher coach, McLellan will bring some of that. He's not Craig Berube or John Tortorella, but McLellan said on the Cam and Strick Podcast earlier this week that he loves Tortorella's approach. I don't think anyone will mistake him for being Tortorella, but he seems like the type of coach who will hold everyone accountable, something Fitzgerald appears to want, too.
McLellan wouldn't be the sexiest hire, and I can see plenty of Devils fans not being thrilled if he's the choice. But there is plenty to like about what he'd bring to New Jersey, especially since he'll be inheriting more high-end talent than in LA. Based on who's available, he should be among their top few choices to replace Ruff.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick; microstats from JFresh Hockey/Corey Sznajder