Devils Should Consider Arvidsson for Free Agency Bargain

Given what they want to accomplish this summer, the Devils may need to go bargain-hunting for a top-6 winger like Viktor Arvidsson in free agency

---

Follow us on Twitter: @AlexC_NJD, @NJD_OnTheRush

---

The New Jersey Devils seem to want to do a lot of things this summer. Securing a goaltender is no secret, and general manager Tom Fitzgerald said he's looking for a defenseman. We also know they want to fix the bottom six and maybe add a top-six winger.

That's a lot to accomplish, and it's not like the Devils have unlimited cap space. Even with the $300,000 jump to an $88 million ceiling, the Devils project to have $19.1 million in cap space. Some things (goaltending and the bottom six) are more of a priority over others.

If Fitzgerald wants to add a top-six winger, he may have to find some value in free agency. Anthony Duclair is one option, but there are more. One who deserves specific attention is Viktor Arvidsson. If his health checks out, he could be a great value signing for the Devils on July 1.

Arvidsson Still Looked Like Himself Despite Injuries

Arvidsson dealt with some injuries with the Los Angeles Kings this past season, but he was still productive. He netted six goals and 15 points in 18 games — a 27-goal, 68-point pace over 82 games. Though we're dealing with a limited sample, his underlying numbers were solid, too.

Arvidsson finished this season with an expected goals share (xG%) of 53.7 percent. He was the Kings' second-most efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 2.1 points per 60 minutes. The only King who was a more efficient five-on-five scorer than Arvidsson was Trevor Moore.

Another positive sign that Arvidsson still has plenty of gas left in the tank is that his shooting metrics all look very good. He finished the season with 59 shots on goal in 18 games, an average of 3.27 per game, putting him on pace to finish with 268 in 82 games.

Arvidsson has been a high-volume shooter throughout his career, but especially during his Kings tenure. He finished with 200+ shots on goal in his previous two seasons, and many of his shots come at five-on-five. He was the Kings' most efficient shooter at five-on-five this season, averaging 12.89 shots on goal per 60 minutes.

If we expand Arvidsson's data to include the last three seasons, he looks like one of the more underrated top-six wingers in the NHL. He's averaged 26 goals and 63 points per 82 games since the start of the 2021-22 season, and his five-on-five scoring rates are solid.

Arvidsson has averaged 1.92 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five since the start of 2021-22. That's the same as Mika Zibanejad and slightly better than Cole Caufield, former Devil Tyler Toffoli, and Jake DeBrusk, who will be a sought-after UFA on July 1.

Based on what Arvidsson did in a small sample this season, there's reason to believe he can replicate his production if he's healthy. His scoring rates and shot production were similar to those of his previous two seasons, so it doesn't seem like injuries are slowing him down yet.

Arvidsson May Not Cost Much in Free Agency

Because the 31-year-old Arvidsson only played in 18 games this past season, he could be looking at a short-term deal with a modest cap hit. Evolving Hockey has Arvidsson projected for a one-year contract at a cap hit of $3.055 million, while AFP Analytics has him signing for three years and a cap hit of $4.764 million.

For context's sake, Evolving Hockey has Arvidsson signing for $4.818 million annually for three years. Would I sign Arvidsson for three years? If his health checks out (a valid concern), I would consider it since it doesn't look like injuries have slowed him down on the ice.

But if a one-year deal for just $3.055 million is what it takes to sign Arvidsson this summer, this should be close to a no-brainer for the Devils. Let's say they plan to acquire a goalie, a defenseman, and a couple of bottom-six forwards. Cap space will dry up quickly if that's the case.

If Jacob Markström is the Devils' man in net and they take on his full $6 million cap hit, that already brings them down to $13.1 million in cap space. Let's say they add two bottom-six forwards for around $5 million total and a depth defender for $2-3 million annually. That will bring the Devils to around $6 million in cap space. That doesn't leave much room for a top-six forward.

Fitzgerald will have to find value to upgrade the top six if that's the case, something that's unlikely to happen with DeBrusk or Tyler Bertuzzi, who project to land deals that pay them over $5 million per year. That makes Arvidsson close to an ideal fit financially, even if he signs for three years and between $4.5 to $5 million per year.

Not only could Arvidsson be a fit financially, but he makes sense for the roster. Yes, he's 5-foot-10, 185 pounds, so he'd be another smaller forward. But if the plan is to add some hard skill in the bottom six, that's not too much of a concern. The team will get tougher to play against if players like Jordan Martinook, Yakov Trenin, or whoever the Devils sign for those spots are in the bottom six.

It's also not hard to envision Arvidsson on Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier's wing in the top six. Imagine a line of Jesper Bratt, Hughes and Arvidsson or Timo Meier, Hischier and Arvidsson. The Devils would probably score plenty of goals when their top six is on the ice.

Arvidsson is a good fit for the Devils, especially if it only takes a one-year deal to sign him. But if they're looking for something different in the top six (I can't blame them), chances are they can't spend top dollar on a UFA. They will have to find value, so Arvidsson should be pretty high on their UFA board on July 1.

---

Thanks for reading and supporting my independent writing project about the New Jersey Devils. If you haven’t subscribed, please consider doing so:

---

Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick

---