Cotter Adds Something Different to Devils Bottom 6
Paul Cotter's game is a bit reminiscent of Miles Wood's, though he may have more to give to the New Jersey Devils than Wood
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Depth was a big problem for the New Jersey Devils last season, both on offense and defense. I wrote a few times in game takeaways posts toward the end of 2023-24 that the Devils' bottom six was not playoff caliber, and it wasn't.
Fortunately, general manager Tom Fitzgerald addressed it this offseason. There was signing Stefan Noesen in free agency, but Fitzgerald's bottom-six makeover started by acquiring Paul Cotter from the Vegas Golden Knights in the Alexander Holtz trade.
Cotter didn't light the world on fire with the Golden Knights this season, but he did total 25 points in 76 games a year after finishing with 13 goals in 55 games. He'll add some new elements to the Devils' bottom six, and there might be some untapped offensive upside they could find from him in 2024-25.
Devils Bottom 6 Took Its Lumps in 2023-24
First, let's start with how the Devils' bottom six looked a season ago. On paper, it looked like they'd have a pretty deep group up front to start the season. Michael McLeod was penciled in to be their fourth-line center, Curtis Lazar showed some potential the previous season, and Nathan Bastian had played well in a fourth-line wing role before.
Tomáš Nosek also came in on a one-year deal after being one of the better fourth-line centers in the NHL for the Boston Bruins, and the hope was Nolan Foote could finally break into the NHL and contribute meaningfully.
As it turns out, pretty much none of that materialized. McLeod did have a breakout year, but we know what happened there. Lazar got off to a hot start offensively but cooled off as the season progressed; his defensive game was always sharp, though. But what really destroyed the Devils' forward depth was injuries.
Jack Hughes missing significant time with another shoulder injury caused the Devils to move players like McLeod and Erik Haula up the lineup into roles they shouldn't have been in. Nosek also never found his footing with the Devils, as he missed significant time with two separate injuries.
Meanwhile, Foote didn't appear in a game until the final weeks of the season after dealing with a lower back injury. Time will tell if those have passed, but Foote being healthy in 2024-25 could give the Devils an even deeper lineup.
Because of all those injuries, the Devils' lack of depth was exposed. Chris Tierney and Max Willman played in more games than they should have, and with all due respect to them, they aren't bottom-six forwards a team should have in their NHL lineup if they have playoff aspirations.
That shouldn't be an issue in 2024-25, assuming that most players remain healthy, and Cotter should factor into that. His makeup isn't all that dissimilar from Miles Wood, who's now with the Colorado Avalanche, so it's no surprise the Devils had interest in him.
Cotter Is About More Than Hits
Cotter is a physical player, as he amassed 233 hits this past season and 168 as a rookie in 2022-23. Hits can be subjective from arena to arena, but there's no doubt he will add more physicality to the Devils' lineup, something they needed in their bottom six.
The good news is that Cotter is not a one-dimensional player who will only try to launch a player through the glass. His microstats suggest there's a player with more to give than that.
Though Cotter only ranked in the seventh percentile in goals this season, he ranked in the 72nd percentile in chances. He did average 3.26 high-danger chances per 60 this past season, a rate higher than Jonathan Marchessault and Ivan Barbashev.
Even though the Devils have a new coach in Sheldon Keefe, chances are they will still be a primarily rush-based team in 2024-25. Cotter may not be Jack Hughes or Jesper Bratt on the rush, but he excelled in transition this past season, ranking in the 67th percentile in zone entries and 86th percentile in zone exits.
A notable feature of Cotter's game is his skating, as his skating speed ranked in the 89th percentile. He will add some pace to the Devils' bottom six, too. And it seems like he has something to offer offensively off the rush:
Cotter will forecheck and throw hits, as most bottom-six forwards do, but there's more to his game than that. It's easy to see the comparisons to Wood, who added many of those elements to the Devils' lineup before he underwent hip surgery.
It also wouldn't surprise me if Cotter has more than a seven-goal season in him. He's an 11.8 percent shooter for his career and shot just seven percent in 2023-24. I wouldn't expect him to produce at a 19-goal pace as he did in 2022-23, but double-digit goals aren't unreasonable.
There's plenty to like about Cotter's game, and it's easy to see why the Devils targeted someone like him to boost their bottom six. He's already a solid defensive forward, and there could be some untapped offensive potential that he unlocks playing on the fourth line with Lazar and Foote or Bastian.
Cotter is also only 24 and under contract for two more seasons at a cap hit of $775,000, so there's a good chance he can provide more value than his contract pays him. He may have seemed like a disappointing return for Holtz, a former top-ten pick, but he will help the Devils in 2024-25 by adding something they didn't have. And that should make a difference in the team having a deeper lineup next season.
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Wow! Sounds like you are a very busy writer. You can't be everywhere. Love the coverage and insights. Makes my day when a new post is up. Can't wait for the season to start.
Hey Alex, On paper the Devils look pretty good. Fingers crossed. Is there any chance you will do an article on the development camp? It seems like that has been lost in the shuffle by everyone.