Devils' Ideal UFA Target for Top 6 Could Be Duclair
The New Jersey Devils need hard skill, but they should still seriously consider Anthony Duclair as a value top-6 signing.
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The New Jersey Devils have some work to do up front this offseason. Adding some hard skill, specifically in the bottom six, would help, but they could also use another speedy scorer who could complement one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier.
One target could be Anthony Duclair. The Devils have $18.8 million in cap space, but one would have to think a decent chunk of that will go into adding a goalie. If they want to achieve all their goals of improving the roster, they will need to find value in places. And Duclair could be the ideal value signing.
Duclair an Underrated Scorer
Duclair has been one of the more underrated scorers in the NHL over the last few seasons. Unfortunately, he tore his Achilles training ahead of the 2022-23 season, causing him to miss 60 games.
Duclair did return for the end of the regular season, posting nine points in 20 games. But he was a factor in the Panthers making a run to the Stanley Cup Final, totaling four goals and 11 points in 20 games. He averaged 26 goals and 59 points per 82 games in his three seasons with the Florida Panthers. However, they needed to clear some cap space, so they dealt him and his $3 million cap hit to the San Jose Sharks last offseason.
The Sharks were awful in 2023-24. No one will mistake that, but Duclair was solid for them, posting 16 goals and 27 points in 56 games before getting dealt to the Tampa Bay Lightning at the trade deadline. As the Lightning do more often than not, that proved to be a shrewd move for them, considering they only gave up a third-round pick and a B-level prospect.
Duclair shined in his short time with the Lightning, potting eight goals and 15 points in 17 games. He did shoot 25 percent with the Lightning, but he still provided valuable depth scoring that the Lightning don't have as much of as they used to.
What's appealing about Duclair as a fit for the Devils is his shooting and plus-finishing ability, in addition to his pace. His microstats for this past season looked quite good despite him spending a good portion of the year with the Sharks.
Duclair is not much of a passer, but all his shooting metrics graded out well in Corey Sznajder's tracked data. He ranked in the 95th percentile in chances and 94th percentile in shots off high-danger passes. And perhaps most notably, he ranked in the 86th percentile in skating speed, something the Devils could use more of on their scoring lines:
The Devils could use a player like Duclair in their lineup. Though he is 5-foot-11, he's almost 200 pounds. He won't get pushed around. Plus, he has some Cup experience from his run with the Panthers, something I imagine the Devils want to add more of in their room this offseason. And when looking at his contract projections, he might be the best value they can find in free agency on July 1.
Duclair Would Provide Value in More Ways Than One
AFP Analytics and Evolving Hockey have both put out contract projections for the 2024 offseason, and Duclair's projections should pique the interest of the Devils' front office.
Let's start with Evolving Hockey, which has Duclair's most likely projected deal at four years at a cap hit of $4.896 million. AFP's numbers are pretty similar to Evolving Hockey, with Duclair signing a three-year contract at a cap hit of just above $4.312 million.
While contract projections are not gospel, AFP and Evolving Hockey offer a good barometer of what the market could look like and are usually pretty close to accurate. Let's say Duclair ends up signing somewhere between the two cap hits, that's a deal the Devils should be all over.
Duclair scoring 20-30 goals on a cap hit of $4.3 to $4.8 million annually would be incredible value. Not only would the Devils get someone who can play a top-six scoring role, but they'd add some speed to the lineup, something they need more of in addition to the hard skill.
Plus, when looking at contract projections for other UFAs that could interest the Devils, Duclair would likely provide better value. Jake DeBrusk makes plenty of sense for the Devils, but would you take him at five years at a cap hit of $5.5 to $6 million when his production has been similar or even a little worse than Duclair’s over the last three seasons?
Tyler Bertuzzi also makes sense for the Devils. He's a top-six scorer and would add a bit of snarl, but would you rather have him on a four-year deal at a cap hit of $5 million+ or Duclair for a bit cheaper when the two's production will likely be similar?
Do the Devils consider bringing back Tyler Toffoli? I'll tell you that without a doubt, Duclair would be the better option when AFP and Evolving Hockey have Toffoli signing for term at a cap hit north of $6 million.
I know Duclair isn't what many Devils fans want for forwards up front. I agree 100 percent that they need to add more hard skill to the lineup. But at least for me, that should be for the bottom six. Players like William Carrier, Yakov Trenin, etc., are players the Devils should target to make the team harder to play against.
But when adding a scorer, which I think the Devils need, it should be a player with some pace and skill like Duclair. He should come at an affordable price, something the Devils will need to seek out if they plan on taking the full cap hits of a Linus Ullmark or Jacob Markström. And he might be the ideal fit for Hughes, who's only really had Toffoli as a consistent finisher on his line over the last couple of seasons.
Given Duclair's production and likely affordable cap hit, he appears to be an ideal UFA target for the Devils. They can get their goalie, shore up the bottom six and add hard skill, and get their top-six upgrade with Duclair. That seems like a win-win-win to me.
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Microstats from JFresh Hockey/Corey Sznajder's A3Z Project