Devils' Finishing Concerns Are Legitimate

Some of the New Jersey Devils' finishing concerns will sort itself out, but it's still a problem that needs addressing.

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The New Jersey Devils are facing some adversity amid a four-game losing streak. Concerns? Sure. Their defense has regressed since dominating before the Christmas break. That was especially true in yesterday's 3-2 loss to the San Jose Sharks, where they gave up numerous odd-man rushes.

Fortunately, that will probably sort itself out. The biggest concern with this Devils team is the lack of finishing talent, something they failed to address this offseason. Some of the poor shooting luck will sort itself out, but some of it very much looks like a problem that needs fixing.

Devils Getting Goalie'd This Often Isn't an Accident

Getting goalie'd a couple of times every couple of weeks is one thing, but it seems like it happens to the Devils too often. They have gotten shut out six times, tied for the most in the NHL with teams like the New York Islanders and other bottom-feeders who won't qualify for the playoffs.

Those shutouts don't look like total accidents, either. The Devils are scoring well below expectation, which is something I've been tweeting and posting on Twitter and Bluesky after the last couple of defeats.

After the loss to the Sharks, the Devils have 134 goals on 151.88 expected goals, meaning they scored 17.88 fewer goals than expected. That's a pretty significant amount, so it's safe to say it's a problem they need to address ahead of the trade deadline.

The lack of scoring from the bottom six during this losing streak has been a hot topic among fans on social media. Paul Cotter has two goals in his last four games, but the goals have been few and far between from the bottom six for weeks.

However, while that is a problem, the Devils' four-game losing streak is more because the top six has gone cold, too. Nico Hischier scored in yesterday's loss to the Sharks, but the Devils haven't gotten much from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier during this losing streak.

Bratt and Hughes haven't scored a goal in the team's five games since returning from the break, while Meier has just one. This is probably the part that will solve itself, though. Hughes has no goals on 2.25 expected goals, while Bratt has none on 1.89 expected goals. They're due, and it will come for them eventually.

Even Stefan Noesen has no goals on 1.57 expected goals during this four-game losing streak. He might not break his scoring drought as soon as Bratt or Hughes, but he probably will eventually.

The Devils will start winning once their top six begins scoring again, and they will start scoring again because they're too good to be held off the scoresheet for long. As for the bottom six/middle six...well, that problem might not sort itself out without some external help.

Devils Need More Depth Scoring

To their credit, the Devils' fourth line played well against the Sharks. They even had some of their best chances of the game, but you can't expect them to carry the load offensively. As Sheldon Keefe said after the game, their third and fourth lines were their best, but that's why they lost.

Still, even when the bottom six plays well, it's usually because they're allowing chances, not creating them. I don't want to kick the guy while he's down, but Erik Haula is struggling mightily. He has two points in his last 26 games and no points in his last 17 outings.

While Cotter has scored two goals in his last four games, he has just three points over his previous 25 contests. I wouldn't say he's playing poorly, but the Devils would ideally have him on the fourth line with a better-constructed bottom six.

And even though a fourth line isn't supposed to score much, it'd be nice to get something from them here and there. Tomáš Tatar hasn't scored a goal since Nov. 23 and has no points in his last ten games.

Curtis Lazar and Nathan Bastian have missed time with injuries, so their situations are different. Still, they aren't contributing much in the way of anything offensively.

Then there's Ondřej Palát. Had he scored on an open net with about 2:30 remaining in regulation against the Sharks, you'd probably be reading about something else today.

That miss is emblematic of the Devils' finishing concerns, though. Sure, the puck didn't make it to Palát cleanly, but chances are a better scorer finishes that chance and the Devils come away with a 3-2 win.

Palát is still a good player, and you can't deny the results with him as Hughes and Bratt's linemate. They have an expected goals share (xG%) of 53.65 percent and an actual goals share (GF%) of 60.6 percent in a sample size of 333 minutes.

Still, that line would likely be much more threatening with a better finisher than Palát. Are you telling me the Devils wouldn't be a better team with Jason Zucker playing left wing on Hughes and Bratt's line? He's on pace for 29 goals and 63 points on a lowly Sabres team. He'd likely be a significant upgrade.

Plus, pushing Palát down the lineup should make the Devils better, especially if they find an upgrade over Haula as the third-line center, something general manager Tom Fitzgerald also needs to address ahead of the trade deadline.

Trade Deadline Needs Seem To Be Clear

So long story short: there's some good and some bad with the Devils' finishing concerns. The good? Hischier, Hughes, Bratt, Meier and Noesen will likely start scoring again. The bad? The Devils don't have many scoring threats outside of those players.

Even though Palát has been playing well for the last few weeks, I wouldn't call him a reliable scorer, so the Devils only have five forwards you can truly feel confident in to score goals relatively consistently.

That's part of why they're nearly 20 goals scored below expected. This team needs another finisher, and that's why those concerns are legitimate and need addressing before the trade deadline.

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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick

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