Devils Have the Goods To Be a Contender
The New Jersey Devils' last five games showed us they have the pieces to be a contender in the Eastern Conference.
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The New Jersey Devils just concluded a gauntlet of a five-game stretch against five playoff contenders. Before it began, I wrote that these five games would teach us plenty about these Devils. While there's still a lot of hockey left this season, they showed us what this team can be.
With two wins against the Florida Panthers and victories against the Carolina Hurricanes and Washington Capitals, the Devils showed us they'll likely be contenders in the Eastern Conference.
Devils Got Excellent Goaltending
The first 30 minutes of this five-game stretch did not start well. The Panthers took it to the Devils, but Jacob Markström kept them in the game until they shifted the tides about halfway through.
That 4-1 win over the Panthers was not the only one where goaltending helped the Devils to a victory. Jake Allen was excellent in the 6-2 win over the Panthers, while Markström was solid in the 4-2 victory over the Hurricanes a few nights ago.
Allen got the nod in Washington last night, and that was perhaps the best goaltending performance the Devils got during this five-game stretch. They were not at their best against the Capitals, specifically in the third period. But Allen made a few timely saves to keep it a 3-2 game, which was ultimately the final score.
Allen and Markström combined for a .943 five-on-five save percentage over these five games and a .919 SV% at all strengths. They made stops on high-danger shots, turning aside .880 percent of the high-danger shots they faced.
The Devils did not get timely saves last season, at least not close to the level they needed. They generally played well over these five games, but moments like the first 30 minutes of the first Panthers game or the third period against the Capitals, where the goaltender helps the team earn two points, is one reason it might be different.
Devils Becoming a Strong Defensive Team
Were the Devils a poor defensive team last season? I wouldn't go that far, but they certainly weren't one of the best. This season, it looks like they might be one of the best, and they locked down every team they faced other than the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Devils allowed just 2.14 expected goals against per 60 minutes over these five games. Their most impressive defensive effort came against the Hurricanes, who totaled just five high-danger chances and 16 shots on goal at five-on-five. They also held the Hurricanes to 1.4 expected goals at that game state.
Granted, the Hurricanes were on the second half of a back-to-back, while the Devils had four days off. Still, the Devils shut down every team they faced. Even in yesterday's 3-2 win against the Capitals, they held their opponent to just 1.88 expected goals at five-on-five.
The Devils are excelling defensively at five-on-five because they have an elite shutdown pair in Jonas Siegenthaler and Johnathan Kovacevic, who rank second league-wide in expected goals against per 60 minutes. They were key in shutting down the Hurricanes, as they were on the ice for just 0.11 expected goals against.
But they're not the only Devils defense pair that's thriving. Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce have also been excellent defensively; they rank in the top 15 in expected goals against per 60 minutes. Hughes looks like a different defender, as he was outstanding in both games against the Panthers and versus the Capitals yesterday.
Pesce doesn't have a point yet, but he's blocking shots and killing plays before they even start. He does plenty of little things well that don't always show up on the scoresheet.
The Devils didn't have two defense pairs they could rely on against tough competition last season. They probably wouldn't have secured eight of ten points from these five games without the stellar play of Siegenthaler and Kovacevic and Hughes and Pesce. That stout defense is another reason why it might be different.
This Isn't Last Season's Devils' Power Play
For those of you who follow me on Twitter or Bluesky, you'll know I've been singing Jeremy Colliton's praises for what he's done on the power play.
It's good the Devils' power play has been lethal lately because their five-on-five offense hasn't been all that special (more on that in a second). Had it not been for their man advantage, the Devils probably wouldn't have come away with eight of ten points from these ten games.
It started with the 6-2 win against the Panthers, where the Devils scored three power-play goals. Two of those came in the final ten seconds of the first and second periods; Stefan Noesen's power-play goal with ten seconds left in the second essentially broke the Panthers' will.
The Devils had more power-play magic in them, too. They scored two power-play goals against the Hurricanes on three opportunities and were 2/5 against the Capitals. In total, the Devils' man advantage went 7/18 over these five games, a success rate of 38.8 percent.
For the season, the Devils' power play has a success rate of 31 percent, second in the NHL to the Winnipeg Jets. There's been plenty of talk around the motion-based system Colliton has brought to the Devils, and it's hard to argue with the results.
The Devils are generating quality looks on the power play and converting on them. It more or less carried them during this five-game stretch, as their five-on-five offense disappeared at times. That leads us to the one concern I have from these five games.
Devils 5-on-5 Offense Could Be Better
If there's one area where the Devils could improve, it's offensively at five-on-five. The Devils averaged just two expected goals per 60 minutes over these five games, further emphasizing how important the power play was.
The good news is that's probably an unsustainably low number, so that should improve. It's also possible the level of competition had something to do with it. Aside from the Capitals, the Devils played four very good defensive teams. And even the Capitals limited the Devils' chances at five-on-five.
Another reason could be how the Devils are playing under Sheldon Keefe. While they're still generating quality chances off the rush, they're also dumping the puck in more often than they did a season ago. As Mike Kelly stated on Twitter, it's taken some offense away, but also helped their defense.
Lastly, it could be a personnel issue, too. Ondřej Palát is still a useful player, but he should not be logging top-six minutes, given the lack of scoring. You look at the Devils' lineup outside of Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, and Timo Meier, and they could use another top-six/middle-six scorer.
That will probably be the Devils' No. 1 priority as we approach the trade deadline, and that should help improve their five-on-five offense. They're averaging 2.45 expected goals per 60 minutes for the season, which isn't awful, but it could certainly be better.
Devils Look Like Contenders
We're barely past the quarter mark of the season, but these five games showed us the Devils have the goods to be a contender. Their goaltending is coming around, their five-on-five defense is becoming one of the best in the NHL, and their power play is on fire.
The Devils could use more five-on-five offense, but odds are that will be a priority ahead of the trade deadline. Otherwise, it looks like this team is very much different from 2023-24.
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LGD!
The two things I really want to see out of this team is to be more efficient with their passing and breakouts. TB and Edmonton are two teams that are so efficient, so professional with their passing, and I think over time we could add that to our game as well, as we continue to learn and internalise the system. That would make us really difficult to beat.