Devils 2024-25 Metro Opponent Preview: Islanders
The New York Islanders finished third in the Metro a season ago, but the New Jersey Devils should reclaim that spot from them in 2024-25.
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Those pesky New York Islanders. Just when it seems like they're on their way out, they find a way to sneak into the playoffs as they've done in the last two seasons. They weren't supposed to be better than the New Jersey Devils in 2023-24, but that's why you play the games.
Once again, the Devils look like a better team than the Islanders heading into the new NHL season. But don't count the Islanders out of the playoff race. They're *probably* a bubble team again. Still, they should be annoying to play against under head coach Patrick Roy, who brought a different style of hockey to the Islanders after taking over for Lane Lambert.
Devils Offense & Forwards Should Be More Dynamic
The Islanders were two different teams last season. Under Lambert, they were more offensive-minded and high event, while under Roy, they returned to a more defensively structured game they played under previous coach Barry Trotz.
Under Lambert, the Islanders averaged 2.68 expected goals per 60 minutes and allowed 2.84 per 60. That completely flipped under Roy, with the Islanders averaging 2.5 expected goals per 60 while allowing 2.4.
When looking at their roster entering the 2024-25 season, that's probably how they have to play, too. They have a bit of firepower up front with Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson and Mathew Barzal, the latter of who had his best NHL season since he was a rookie. But after them, goals could be hard to come by.
Former Devil Kyle Palmieri is still an underrated top-six winger and totaled 30 goals and 54 points a season ago, but who knows if he can repeat that. Anthony Duclair was a solid addition up front and should add 20-25 goals if he can stay healthy, but this isn't the deepest team in the NHL.
Maxim Tsyplakov was a 31-goal scorer in the KHL last season, but he had never totaled more than ten goals in a KHL season before 2023-24. He's slated for a top-six role right now, but I'd be surprised if he were a top-six winger in the NHL.
This is where the Islanders' depth comes into question, especially compared to the Devils. Anders Lee was a 20-goal scorer last season, but he may be beginning to decline at 33 years old. Jean-Gabriel Pageau is in the same boat, as he totaled just 11 goals and 33 points in 2023-24.
The Devils' bottom-six depth should be better than the Islanders after adding Stefan Noesen and Paul Cotter to the mix. We'll see how the lines break down, but one of Tomáš Tatar and Ondřej Palát will be a third-liner, too.
That's a good situation to be in, but more importantly, the Devils have more game-breakers up front. Assuming Jack Hughes stays healthy, he could flirt with a 100-point pace for the third consecutive season. The Islanders don't have someone who comes close to his skill level.
Even Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier are more dynamic than Nelson and Horvat, and a healthy Timo Meier gives the Devils another dimension they didn't have until the final third or so of last season.
While the Islanders have some decent top-end talent, the Devils' forward group looks deeper and more dynamic than the Islanders’. Goals shouldn't be hard to come by, especially compared to the Islanders, since I don't think Roy will have his team playing uptempo hockey like the Devils.
Islanders Blue Line & Defensive Style Should Be Their Strength
The Islanders' strength, which shouldn't be a surprise, will likely be their blue line. Noah Dobson had a breakout year in 2023-24, totaling ten goals and 70 points in 79 games. He does give the Islanders some more offensive pop, but I'll be interested to see if he can repeat it.
Dobson is the Islanders' best defenseman, but Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock are still solid second-pair defenders. Pelech's impacts have fallen off a bit in the last couple of seasons, but he's still a sound defensive defenseman.
Mike Reilly had a career resurgence after getting claimed on waivers by the Islanders, and he returns for his second season with the organization after re-signing this offseason. He's a solid two-way defender, but his likely partner — Scott Mayfield — may not be what he used to be.
Mayfield, along with Alex Romanov, are the Islanders' two weaknesses on defense. Roy can probably shield Mayfield by keeping him on the third pair, but Romanov is slated for a top-pair role. He's big and physical, so there's your reason for him playing higher up the lineup. But he's someone the Devils could exploit, especially since his partner, Dobson, is shaky defensively.
While I think the Islanders may post better defensive results at five-on-five simply because of how Roy wants them to play, the Devils' blue line also looks solid. They should have more offensive pop from the back end with a healthy Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes and Šimon Nemec.
Even defensively, Brett Pesce and a rebound season from Jonas Siegenthaler would give the Devils some steady defensive presence on the back end. And if they find the proper role for Brenden Dillon, he should provide defensive depth.
The Islanders might be a better defensive team because of the style they'll play, but the Devils shouldn't be too shabby, either.
Markström & Allen Can Hang With Sorokin & Varlamov
Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov are among the NHL's best tandems, but the Devils may finally have a duo that can compete with some of the NHL's best.
Jacob Markström surprisingly fared better than Sorokin last season, finishing in the top 10 in goals saved above expected. Meanwhile, Sorokin saved only 1.4 goals above expected, tied with former Devil Kaapo Kähkönen for 43rd in the NHL.
Elliotte Friedman mentioned on the latest 32 Thoughts Podcast that he heard Sorokin might be working through something. He didn't have any details on the severity or what it could be, but that would be a significant loss for the Islanders if it caused him to miss the start of the season.
Varlamov is a solid 1B, but will he hold up if he has to take on a starter's workload if Sorokin is out? That's something that bears watching to start the season.
But even with Sorokin healthy, the Devils should have a formidable tandem with Markström and Jake Allen that isn't a liability. They shouldn't put the team behind the eight-ball because they can't get quality goaltending consistently as the Islanders usually do.
Devils Look Like a Stronger Overall Team
The Islanders' over/under heading into 2024-25 is 91.5, nine points lower than the Devils, who are at 100.5. I expect the Islanders to be in the mix for a wild-card berth, along with the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins, but the Devils should beat them out in the standings in 2024-25.
The Islanders' defense will probably post better results than the Devils' simply because of their style, but that gap shouldn't be big enough to make that much of a difference. Offensively, the Devils should have a relatively significant advantage. They scored 21 more goals than the Islanders last season, and that was with Hughes and Meier rarely 100 percent healthy.
Sorokin and Varlamov are better than Markström and Allen, and you could even argue that's the best tandem in the Metro. But the Devils' goaltending shouldn't be a liability as it was last season, and it could even be top three in the Metro, negating some of the advantage the Islanders have in net.
Overall, the Devils look like a deeper and more balanced team than the Islanders, and that should lead them to taking back a top-three spot from them in the Metro in 2024-25.
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