Devils' Jack Hughes Showed Fortitude in 2023-24
Jack Hughes' play through an injury-riddled 2023-24 said plenty about him as a player and his character.
Follow us on Twitter: @AlexC_NJD, @NJD_OnTheRush
Jack Hughes' 2023-24 season came to an end earlier this week, with the New Jersey Devils announcing he'd undergo shoulder surgery. It wasn't a surprise to see or read the announcement. It had been clear for weeks that he was not 100 percent.
But even though Hughes had an injury-plagued campaign, he showed plenty of fortitude and was still a high-end player for the Devils. Let's look back on his 2023-24 season and how he still made an impact despite playing with one good shoulder for a good chunk of the year.
Hughes Competed Hard After Injury
Hughes got off to a scorching start this season. Was he a bit of a power-play merchant? Sure, but he was still scoring at will. He was at one point a two-point-per-game player and had ten goals and 33 points through the first 20 games of the season. That's a 41-goal, 135-point pace over 82 games.
That probably wasn't sustainable, but you never know with Hughes' talent. He's produced at a 40-goal pace in each of the last two seasons, and there's no doubt that he can be a 100-point player if he stays healthy. It looked like he was tracking for that until he went down with his latest shoulder injury against the Chicago Blackhawks on Jan. 5.
Hughes had 15 goals and 45 points in 31 games at the time of that injury against the Blackhawks, but that would keep him out of play for the next month. He'd return after the All-Star Break, but it was pretty clear soon afterward that he was not the same player he was before the injury.
The fact that he played the wing an overwhelming majority of the time after returning was a sign that he was not 100 percent. He also wasn't taking faceoffs, and even when Erik Haula or Nico Hischier got tossed out of the dot, it'd be someone like Jesper Bratt or Alex Holtz taking a draw instead of Hughes.
Hughes was still productive after the injury, posting 29 points in 30 games before the team shut him down for the season. But the ability to carry a line wasn't there, and his shot was not as lethal as it was before he got injured. That hurt the Devils at five-on-five, but he deserves plenty of credit for continuing to play through another shoulder injury.
And even with him playing with one good shoulder, Hughes had a positive impact on the Devils. Let's look at his fancy stats from before and after the injury to portray what he meant to the team.
Before getting hurt, Hughes generally looked like typical Hughes. He had an expected goals share (xG%) of 54.39 percent at five-on-five, and the Devils were controlling about 59 percent of the scoring chances with him on the ice. His high-danger chance share was break-even, but the Devils were still a better team with him on the ice than when he was off.
There was a dropoff in Hughes' underlying metrics after the injury, but he was still quite good at five-on-five:
53.26 xG%
51.86 scoring chances share (SCF%)
52.36 high-danger chances share (HDCF%)
Were the Devils dominating at five-on-five with him on the ice after the injury? No, but play was still in their favor. Hughes was scoring at five-on-five, too, averaging 2.02 points per 60 minutes. That is lower than what we'd expect from him, but it's actually slightly above where he was before the injury (1.96 points per 60).
Scoring at a rate of 2.02 points per 60 is what you'd expect from most top-line players. Considering Hughes was playing with one good shoulder, that's pretty impressive. And that's with him playing on the wing most of the time, far from his natural position and where he's at his best.
Even with some of the five-on-five downturn in his play after the injury, Hughes' play was worth a total goals above replacement (GAR) of 13.9 for the season. That ranks second on the Devils behind Bratt, and the player in third is on an indefinite leave of absence from the team related to the 2018 World Junior investigation. No one will catch Hughes with just three games left.
Hughes' 2023-24 Was About More Than Numbers
From a numbers standpoint, Hughes had a solid season. Seventy-four points in 62 games would have put him on pace to finish with 98 points in 82 games. I don't think many of us would have complained about that had he stayed healthy. He likely would've surpassed 100 points had he stayed healthy.
But what Hughes did this season was about more than what his numbers say. Sure, those are impressive considering the circumstances, but it told us plenty about his character. I don't think anyone ever legitimately questioned his character, but it would've been easy for him to call it quits and get the surgery earlier in the season.
Instead, Hughes returned despite the team's precarious position in the standings and fought through plenty of adversity to help them try and push for the playoffs. It didn't work out in the end, but you can't ever question whether or not he cares because he clearly does. That says plenty about him, and I expect Hughes to eventually pick up where he left off before the injury once he returns to health.
Hughes underwent surgery yesterday in Vail, Colorado, performed by the same surgeon who repaired Cole Caufield and Kent Johnson's shoulders. The expectation is he'll be ready for training camp if there aren't any setbacks. It'll be exciting to see what he can do with a stabilized shoulder, but we'll look back on Hughes' 2023-24 as one where he showed plenty of mettle. And I expect he'll be better for it once he returns to 100 percent.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey
Are there comparables for high-end offensive players coming back from offseason shoulder surgery?