Devils' Keefe Needs to Better Optimize His Lineup
It's more complicated than just changing line combos, but a fresh look could help spark a stale New Jersey Devils offense.
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It's more than just a slump. The New Jersey Devils are not playing well. Their defense has come around and looks more like the defensive unit that dominated before the Christmas break. But their offense...it's gone missing.
The Devils' bottom six has struggled this season, but their fourth line was the only one that showed up in their two most recent losses. The team's top six has been faltering since Christmas and is a significant reason why the Devils have scored just 1.9 goals per game over their last ten.
Sheldon Keefe said after yesterday's game that the Devils' best players need to be better. It's as simple as that. He's right, but the lineup has gotten stale and could use a new look to spark the team's top players.
Hischier & Hughes Lines Have Fallen Off
You know why the Devils thrived before Christmas? It's because the Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes lines were humming. Let's break down their five-on-five stats before and after Christmas and why Keefe needs to break them up.
Before Christmas, Ondřej Palát, Hughes and Jesper Bratt had a 55.66 expected goals share (xG%) and a goal differential of +9 (17-8). Since then, they have fallen off a cliff:
47.8 xG%
7 goals for, 7 against
It hasn't been better for Timo Meier, Hischier and Stefan Noesen, either. Before Christmas, they had an xG% of 67.09 percent and a goal differential of +3 (8-5). Since Christmas, their numbers have also fallen off a cliff:
48.85 xG%
2 goals for, 1 against
A 67.09 xG% was unsustainable, but to have a nearly 20 percent drop in their expected goals share is massive. That's why the Devils have not been scoring since Christmas. Their top-six is not getting the job done.
Keefe is a numbers guy. We all know this by now, so I'm sure he has an idea these top two lines are struggling at five-on-five. I don't think he's keeping them together out of stubbornness. He likely believes they'll turn it around based on their previous sample before Christmas.
The Devils' struggles are more complicated than just switching the lines and hoping everything will be alright. They need to do other things better. Keefe has even alluded to it after the last couple of losses, but different lines could spark a top-six that's become stale.
It's not like we're talking about small post-Christmas samples, too. The Hughes and Hischier lines have logged over 100 minutes together since the break, so we have enough data to suggest things aren't working.
What Keefe Could Do
If I were Keefe, I would look to reunite Meier, Hischier, and Bratt. That's the best move he could make right now to spark a stale top-six.
Meier, Hischier, and Bratt have not logged any ice time together this season, but their previous body of work suggests it should be on the table. This trio has a 57.2 xG% since the Devils acquired Meier at the 2023 trade deadline in a sample approaching 250 minutes.
Meier has looked his best when on a line with Bratt, and the Devils need to get Meier going. I wouldn't call him a cardio merchant, but he has just one goal and four points across his last 11 games. I don't care if he's not on PP1. The Devils need more from him since he's making nearly $9 million annually.
You'll also likely get a more productive Hischier with these three together, so that's the move I'd make. That does leave Hughes' line in a pickle, given the current roster, but I think there's one combo worth trying.
The Devils need to upgrade on Palát in the top six, but I would keep him with Hughes for the time being and slide Dawson Mercer alongside them to take Bratt's spot.
I'm out on Mercer and think the Devils should look to trade him, but he's the best option for more scoring until general manager Tom Fitzgerald makes a trade or two to improve a shallow forward group.
Another option would even be to try Tomáš Tatar with Hughes and Mercer. Tatar has played well over the last two games and has two points. His five-on-five numbers remain excellent, but I also understand if Keefe wants to keep him with Curtis Lazar and Nathan Bastian since they've been the Devils' best line over the last two outings.
There are obviously other things Keefe can try. I'm just a blogger spitballing, but a first line of Meier, Hischier, and Bratt and a second unit of Palát, Hughes, and Mercer have potential.
It also has a trickle-down effect because a third line of Paul Cotter, Justin Dowling and Noesen looks decent on paper. The Devils need to make some trades, but Keefe can help by better optimizing the lineup, which he isn't doing right now.
What About the Devils' Defense Pairs?
This is a tougher question to answer, but it might also be time for Keefe to shake up his defense pairs. The Brenden Dillon and Dougie Hamilton pairing has been a disaster lately, so that's one unit to change. But the solution isn't as easy as the forward combos.
Do you put Luke Hughes with Hamilton and give them cushy offensive minutes? I'm not touching the Jonas Siegenthaler and Johnathan Kovacevic pairing because they're still playing quite well, so that'd leave Dillon with Brett Pesce.
That's probably what I'd do, but I'd be lying if I said I know what to do on defense. Keefe has kept his defense pairs together since Hughes and Pesce returned to the lineup from injuries in October.
We don't know what else works, and there are three new faces on the back end (Dillon, Kovacevic and Pesce), so it's not like there's a previous track record to lean on to know what could work and what might not.
Still, it's time for new looks with the Devils' lineup. Things have gotten stale, and I think that's become apparent with the team having just two wins in their last ten games.
Meier - Hischier - Bratt
Palát - Hughes - Mercer
Cotter - Dowling - Noesen
Tatar - Lazar - Bastian
Hughes - Hamilton
Siegenthaler - Kovacevic
Dillon - Pesce
It's more complicated than just switching the lines, but perhaps that's the first spark the Devils need to right the ship. Sometimes, a fresh look is what's needed.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick