Devils' Kovacevic Extension: What It Means for the Big Picture

How does re-signing Johnathan Kovacevic to a five-year, $20 million contract affect the New Jersey Devils' long-term outlook?

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One trade deadline topic we haven't covered is the New Jersey Devils re-signing Johnathan Kovacevic to a five-year, $20 million contract. Maybe that came as a surprise to some of you as it did for me, but he has been fantastic this season.

You can't blame the Devils for wanting to lock up Kovacevic, but it has implications. What happens to Šimon Nemec and Seamus Casey? How much risk is there in re-signing Kovacevic? What about the salary cap for the upcoming offseason? Let's get into the big picture.

Kovacevic's Breakout Season

I liked the Devils' acquisition of Kovacevic this past offseason — his metrics, though in a limited sample, were quite good with the Montreal Canadiens. There was plenty to suggest he could be a valuable depth defender, but one of the best shutdown defensemen in the NHL? That was hard to see coming.

That's precisely what Kovacevic has been for the Devils, though. His defensive game has been worth a net rating of plus-8.6, ranked sixth in the NHL among all defensemen. He and Jonas Siegenthaler combined to form one of the best shutdown pairs in the NHL before Siegenthaler's injury.

Kovacevic's numbers away from Siegenthaler haven't been great. He has an expected goals share (xG%) of 49.1 percent away from Siegenthaler and has allowed 2.53 expected goals per 60.

That led some to believe he might be a Siegenthaler merchant, but he has played well with deadline acquisition Brian Dumoulin. His sample with Dumoulin is still minuscule, but the longer they excel as a pair, the less concerned I am about Kovacevic being a Siegenthaler merchant.

Overall, Kovacevic has been fantastic. He's been one of the best rush defenders in the NHL, ranking in the 99th percentile in possession entry prevention and 81st percentile in entry denial rate. His defensive impacts have also been excellent:

I've seen plenty of players have breakout seasons in their late 20s, like Kovacevic, get paid, then never live up to the contract. But you can see why the Devils decided to sign Kovacevic. All the metrics suggest his season has been legit.