Devils & Laine Could Be a Fit at Heavily Reduced Cost
Per Pierre LeBrun, Patrik Laine will likely be on the move this offseason. Let's look at some pros and cons of pursuing him.
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The Stanley Cup continues on, but 30 other teams are gearing up to start their offseasons. Rumors are building up, and there were plenty of fresh ones yesterday from the NHL insiders on TSN's Insider Trading. There was a Jacob Markström update from Chris Johnston, but we're not here to talk about that today.
Pierre LeBrun noted on Insider Trading and his rumblings article for The Athletic that Patrik Laine wants a fresh start and that the Columbus Blue Jackets will work with him and his camp to find a new team. I'm not saying he should be option A, B or even C for the New Jersey Devils, but they would be wise to inquire. Let's look at some pros and cons of pursuing Laine.
Laine's Best Is a Perfect Complement for Hughes
Laine only played in 18 games this season due to injury, plus entering the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. LeBrun mentioned on Insider Trading that Laine is still in the program, so we wish him well while he continues on the road to recovery.
Now for the hockey side of things. First, let's look at some pros to pursuing Laine. When on his game, he is a high-end goal scorer capable of totaling close to a point per game. Between the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, Laine totaled 40 goals and 108 points across 111 games. That comes out to an average of 36 goals and 79 points per 82 games.
Laine is not a play driver and never will be, but he's still a highly efficient five-on-five scorer. He averaged 2.39 points per 60 minutes between the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, making him the Blue Jackets' most efficient five-on-five scorer over that two-season span.
What's most notable about Laine's five-on-five scoring was the rate at which he scored goals. He averaged 1.01 goals per 60 minutes, a number tied with Mitch Marner, Elias Pettersson, and Leon Draisaitl and better than Sidney Crosby and Brady Tkachuk.
Laine was particularly excellent during the 2022-23 season, even though he only appeared in 56 games. He was one of the best shooters in the league and created plenty of offense off the rush. Even defensively, he finished in the 70th percentile in wins above replacement at even strength:
Not only was Laine shooting, but he was facilitating a bit more than usual. And off the puck, his game had improved a bit. No one will mistake him for being an elite forechecker or player off the puck, but it does look like he's made some strides in that area of his game.
His 2023-24 season is hard to evaluate for a couple of reasons. One) He was obviously going through some things, so just from a personal level, he was struggling. But the Blue Jackets were also a mess from the get-go, so I don't think it's unreasonable to say his 2023-24 was a wash.
If, and this is a big if, the Devils are getting 2022-23 Laine, they'd have themselves the shooter they've been seeking for Jack Hughes for a couple of seasons. That's the main plus of acquiring him: his plus shooting talent. When on his game, he's one of the best shooters in the NHL, and the Devils could very much use that, especially if he isn’t as much of a liability off the puck as he used to be.
Cons of Acquiring Laine
While Laine has some appealing traits that make him someone the Devils should inquire about, there are some cons, too. He's always been inconsistent, and the questions about his game off the puck will linger until he proves otherwise, even though he looks like he's made some strides there.
Two) Laine hasn't played in 60-plus games since the 2019-20 season (68). Granted, that was the year COVID cut the season short and forced the league to form the playoff bubbles in Edmonton and Toronto. But still, that's a long time. He's only appeared in 129 games across the last three seasons, so that's a concern.
Three) His contract is problematic. Laine only has two years left on his deal, but it comes with a cap hit of $8.7 million. With the Devils needing a goaltender, a couple of bottom-six forwards, and perhaps a defenseman, they cannot afford to take on his entire contract. Nor should they want to anyway.
However, that is the least of my concerns. Looking at the situation and the potential market for Laine, the Blue Jackets will probably be willing to retain a relatively healthy portion of his salary to make a deal go through. Since Laine wants a change of scenery, it may be the only way to push through a trade anyway. I doubt many (any?) teams would take on his full cap hit.
The Blue Jackets retaining 50 percent of Laine's cap hit would bring it down to $4.35 million. And let's say the Blue Jackets aren't willing to eat 50 percent of his salary for two years and would only do something like 40 percent. That'd still be a $5.22 million cap hit.
Laine is worth a gamble for that price, especially since I don't think he will cost much in a trade. It's hard to get a sense of what it'd take to acquire him, but it should not cost the Devils or any team their top trade chips to acquire him, even with retention.
Laine Might Be Worth the Gamble
There's obviously some risk in taking a chance on Laine with how his last year has gone. But he's looking for a fresh start and will probably be motivated to get his NHL career back on track. You can't quantify that. There's no way to, but it has meaning. He'll be coming into a good situation with the Devils, which should help him, too.
I also see the fit for Laine with the Devils, as long as it comes at a heavily reduced cost for the trade and retention on his cap hit. If he can find his game again, he could be a great shoot-first complement for the play-driving Hughes at something like $4.35 million annually.
I'm not saying the Devils should have him among their top three or even five trade targets. But I would call and see what the Blue Jackets are looking for and if Laine would be willing to come to New Jersey (he has a 10-team no-trade clause). Maybe I'm higher on Laine than most, but I think there's good bounce-back potential. And if he hits that potential, he could turn into the elite shooting threat the Devils have needed in their top six.
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"Devils & Laine Could Be a Fit at Heavily Reduced Cost"
Me : "NO. Just...NO."
I feel like articles like this are incomplete without some speculation on what we would have to give up.