Devils' Luke Hughes Living Up to the Hype
New Jersey Devils defenseman Luke Hughes has posted strong results and has lived up to the hype nearly halfway through his rookie season.
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Getting through Dougie Hamilton's injury was never going to be easy for the New Jersey Devils. They called up Šimon Nemec, who has played well for a 19-year-old in the NHL. But he's not the only young defenseman who's stepped up for the team in Hamilton's absence.
Luke Hughes has caught fire lately, with five points across his last three games. He's been arguably the Devils' best defenseman, but it isn't just this little stretch of hockey where he's played well. Let's look at his rookie season so far, how he's helped the Devils, and how he's looked compared to other rookie defensemen in the NHL.
Hughes Improving as Role Changes & Season Progresses
There was plenty of hype around the younger Hughes when the Devils drafted him with the fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft. Not only did he have the elite skating ability that his brothers Jack and Quinn have, but he also measured 6-foot-2, 185 pounds, giving him the size and skating ability to have top-pair potential.
The youngest Hughes brother got a look with the Devils at the end of last season. He showed his potential, particularly in the final game of the regular season against the Washington Capitals, when he scored a game-winning goal in overtime. Coach Lindy Ruff even used Hughes alongside John Marino in the playoff series against the Carolina Hurricanes, showing what they thought of him in a short time.
There were big expectations for Hughes heading into this season, especially with Ryan Graves and Damon Severson's departures during the offseason. But rightfully so, Ruff began Hughes in a third-pair role to start 2023-24.
Hughes fared well in those minutes. While the Hughes and Brendan Smith pair had a 40.59 expected goals percentage (xG%), his impacts were still positive two-ways. That became evident when Hughes' numbers began to improve once paired alongside Colin Miller.
In a sample of 155 minutes, Hughes and Miller posted a 54.4 xG%, a significant improvement over his pairing with Smith. It's not a surprise Hughes played well with Miller, too. That latter is much more mobile, is a more efficient puck mover, and is a better defender than Smith. The two complemented each other well.
Hughes' play alongside Miller was a sign that it was only a matter of time before he ended up alongside Marino, especially since Kevin Bahl wasn't cutting it out in that role. The two had already played a bit together before this last three-game run, but Ruff now has Hughes in a fixed spot alongside Marino.
It's only been a few games as a regular pair, but Hughes and Marino will likely stick together for the foreseeable future. They have a 62.97 xG% and have controlled 56.22 percent of the high-danger chances. Like Hughes and Miller, the two also complement each other well.
Marino is the team's best defensive defenseman, but he's also one of their best puck-moving blueliners, even if he doesn't score many points. Hughes has many of the same attributes, and though you may think he's not the best defender, his defensive impacts have been excellent this season:
Not only has Hughes been excellent two-ways at even-strength, but he's had no problem running the first power-play unit. Nemec has done well to fill in for Hamilton, but Hughes has played his part, too.
You could argue he's been the best the Devils' best defenseman based on the numbers, and not just his. Jonas Siegenthaler has struggled and has not been what he was the previous two seasons. Nemec is only 19 and has played well, but he's appeared in about half the games Hughes has.
Marino has been good for the most part, but not to the level he was a season ago. I'd expect that to change with Hughes, though. It already has a bit, and I think it will even as the sample size increases.
Hughes vs. Other Rookie Defensemen
There's been plenty made about Brock Faber's start to the season. He's playing big minutes for the Minnesota Wild, especially since John Hynes took over as head coach. But just because Faber is logging 30 minutes of ice time some nights doesn't mean you should discount Hughes in the Calder race.
While Faber has been excellent defensively, he hasn't had the same two-way impact as Hughes; Faber’s even-strength offense has been worth an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of minus-2. Granted, Faber has played much more difficult assignments and handled them well.
As it stands, Hughes has played about 29 percent of his minutes against elite competition (via Puck IQ). Faber has played around 39 percent of his minutes against elite competition and has an xGAR of 3 when it comes to his even-strength defense. Tough minutes and great results are hard to brush aside.
Pavel Mintyukov is another young defenseman who's stood out this season. He's cooled off a bit since a hot start, but he's still posted excellent offensive results for the Anaheim Ducks. It's on defense where he's struggled a bit; his even-strength defense has been worth a negative xGAR.
All three young defensemen have played well to start 2023-24, but Hughes' all-around impact may be the best of the three. It's close with Faber because of how the Wild have deployed him, and there is a difference that's hard to discount.
Still, the easier minutes shouldn't take away from Hughes' impact. No one defenseman was ever going to replace what the Devils lost in Hamilton. Nemec has done his part, but Hughes has too. He has a 55.31 xG% since Hamilton's injury and has gotten to a level where Ruff feels comfortable playing him alongside Marino. And if Hughes sticks with Marino, his quality of competition will increase.
If he keeps up his play, which continues to improve since the start of the season, the Devils will be able to weather missing Hamilton. That is until general manager Tom Fitzgerald trades for a defenseman like Noah Hanifin.
That should put Hughes firmly in the Calder Trophy conversation. But if he tails off, he's already had a significant positive impact on the Devils. The plan to replace Graves and Severson, at least to start this season, was going to be internally and partly with Hughes. He's answered the bell so far, and the best should be yet to come.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick & Evolving Hockey, except where noted