Devils Would Be Wise to Extend Luke Hughes Now
The New Jersey Devils should follow the Minnesota Wild signing Brock Faber and get Luke Hughes locked up long-term this offseason.
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There's no indication a Luke Hughes extension is coming soon, but that doesn't mean it won't. He's entering the final year of his entry-level contract, meaning he became eligible for an extension on July 1. And after yesterday, we might have the template of what he could sign for with the Devils.
Brock Faber had a solid rookie season, though maybe not as good as some pundits might have you think. Still, he has a very bright future, and the Minnesota Wild wasted no time securing him to an eight-year extension with an average annual value (AAV) of $8.5 million.
Paying young defensemen out of their ELCs is becoming the trend, and don't be surprised if the Devils follow suit with Hughes. Let's look at why that should be the case.
Faber Had a Breakout Season as a Rookie
Hughes and Faber are two very different defensemen. While Faber did total 47 points this past season, the same as Hughes, I'm not sure many people will tell you they think of Faber as an offensive defenseman. Whereas with Hughes, I'd guess most people perceive him that way, at least at this point in his career.
Faber played very difficult minutes for the Wild last season, logging 35.1 percent of his ice time against elite competition and 39.8 percent against the middle of the lineup. He was basically spending all of his ice time against top-nine players, and the results were solid, at least initially.
However, Faber's results slipped quite a bit as the season progressed. But even then, his play was still worth a total goals above replacement (GAR) of 10.7. He was a valuable player, and while he may have hit the rookie wall to end 2023-24, he looks like a future top-pair, shutdown defender.
Faber's microstats card also has plenty of blue and not much red. He's good in transition, creates shots and chances in the offensive zone, and is an OK rush defender, though he could stand to improve in that area (chances are he will, too):
This is a bet on upside signing from the Wild, something that's becoming more common with NHL teams, particularly with young defensemen. The Ottawa Senators did similar with Jake Sanderson after his rookie season, signing him to an eight-year extension worth just over $8 million annually.
Sanderson totaled just 32 points in 78 games as a rookie, but the underlying numbers were excellent; his play was worth a total GAR of 11.7. He also looks like a legit top-pair defender, so the Senators were smart to bet on the upside; he had a terrific second pro year in 2023-24.
Those two defensemen are the best comps for Hughes, and given their upward trajectories, Hughes might be on the same path, too.
Hughes Showed Sky-High Potential
Hughes' rookie season had its ups and downs, but the ups showed his potential. From an eye-test perspective, his skating is elite. At 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, he's a smooth skater, which helps him excel in transition. That elite skating should help him round into a plus rush defender at some point, something he already did well as a rookie.
From a numbers perspective, Hughes' underlying metrics were a mixed bag, but some of that was due to injuries to Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton. Since they missed significant time, Hughes had to play higher up the lineup than the Devils likely wanted this season, which hurt his metrics a bit.
The good news is that changed after Travis Green took over as the interim coach. He shifted Hughes to a sheltered offensive role and finished the season with 15 points in his final 20 contests. That likely helped him finish third in the Calder voting to Faber and Connor Bedard.
Hughes' actual GAR of 1.1 doesn't look great, but his expected GAR of 8.8 suggests he should've gotten better results. It's also worth looking at Hughes' microstats page, which doesn’t look that different from Faber’s.
Hughes showed some great playmaking instincts, grading out well in everything other than primary assists. He was also excellent in transition, ranking in the 84th percentile in entries and 91st in exit possession rate. His rush defense was solid, and he created plenty of offense off the rush. And perhaps most surprisingly, he was great on defensive-zone retrievals:
Just like Faber, Hughes' microstats show his upside. The biggest difference between the two last season was that Faber played much more difficult minutes. However, Faber is a full year older than Hughes, meaning he's further along in his development.
Eventually, Hughes will get to a point when he can play a top-pair role with difficult minutes. And that's why the Devils should look to get him signed before the start of the 2024-25 season.
Progress isn't always linear, but if Hughes takes a big jump this coming season, his extension could be much more expensive in July 2025 if general manager Tom Fitzgerald decides to wait until then.
Even now, it will be expensive. Faber just signed for an $8.5 million AAV for eight years after one season in the NHL. And for comparison's sake, Faber's market value was at $6.2 million in Dom's model at The Athletic, while Hughes is at $6.3 million. Hughes will get his money.
Do I think he'll earn an AAV above $9 million? Not this summer, but if he breaks out and has a 60-plus point season in 2024-25, you can bet that'll be the case. With the recent Sanderson and Faber deals, it's safe to say an AAV will come in the eights and probably a bit above his brother Jack's $8 million AAV.
I would make that bet now, just as the Devils did with Jack, because I think Hughes will be a star defenseman sooner rather than later. A bridge deal could make some sense next summer, but I would almost guarantee the Devils would come to regret that two to three years later when his AAV could reach eight figures. His upside is sky-high, and the Devils should make that bet now, too.
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