Devils Goaltending Not Good Enough vs. Red Wings & Islanders
Jacob Markström and Jake Allen cost the New Jersey Devils points against the Detroit Red Wings and New York Islanders.
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The New Jersey Devils played pretty well in their two games against the Detroit Red Wings and New York Islanders, but hockey is a cruel sport sometimes.
Though they cratered the Red Wings at five-on-five and had a slight edge in quality chances against the Islanders, the Devils only got one point for their efforts. They're 5-4-2 on the season and need a win against the Anaheim Ducks tomorrow night. But maybe there's reason to be encouraged.
Devils Goaltending Needs to Be Better
Bryce Salvador and Rachel Herzog showed the graphic on the MSG post-game show after the loss to the Islanders, but the Devils are averaging four goals per game during this 0-2-2 stretch. You should be winning when scoring four a game, so why aren't they?
It's pretty simple: the Devils aren't getting saves. Jacob Markström gave up nearly three goals above expected against the Washington Capitals in a 6-5 OT loss last weekend, and he cost them the game against the Red Wings.
If Markström makes the saves he should have made against the Red Wings, we'd be talking about the Devils coming out of this back-to-back with three of four points and a 6-3-2 record. He faced just 1.75 expected goals but gave up four goals. That's a goalie loss. Full stop.
Perhaps I'm being hard on Markström, but he needs to be better than that. Much better. The Devils did not give up a first-round pick and Kevin Bahl for Markström to be an .890 goaltender.
The good news is that Markström is probably due for positive regression. I don't think he's .890 bad, and his high-danger SV% is well below his career norms. I would be cautiously optimistic that he will get better.
Then there's Jake Allen. I'm not going to sit here and tell you the Devils played well in the 8-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, but Allen did not help matters. He gave up eight goals on 4.24 expected goals, which obviously won't cut it.
Allen was OK against the Islanders. He made some big saves to keep the Devils in the game when they were trailing, but the Islanders' second goal came off a horrendous rebound.
The Devils have a team SV% of .814 during this four-game skid. No team is winning with that kind of goaltending, but an .814 SV% is unsustainably low. That's almost guaranteed to rebound, and when it does, hopefully the Devils will score enough to make it count.
Devils' Process May Be Improving
They may only have gotten one point out of the last two games, but the Devils' process was better. Head coach Sheldon Keefe even mentioned after the Islanders loss that he was very encouraged by the team's performances in those two games.
I agree since the Devils comfortably controlled the xGs against the Red Wings. You know the Devils were the better team if you watched that game. They just couldn't get the saves.
The Islanders game started a bit shaky, but I thought the Devils did find their legs as the game progressed. They battled to get a point, and they came oh so close to securing the win in overtime when Nico Hischier rifled a shot off the crossbar.
As they say, when it rains, it pours. That's how hockey goes sometimes. But you have to be a bit optimistic about how the Devils played the last two games. They dominated a bad Red Wings team that looks like they'll be in the James Hagens/Michael Misa sweepstakes and played well enough against the Islanders.
That's why the Ducks game tomorrow night is so crucial. Any goodwill built from the process of these two games will go out the window if they get throttled by the Ducks, who don't look very good to start 2024-25.
Those are the types of games the Devils lost too much last season. Losing to the Red Wings in a similar fashion won't erase those concerns lingering from 2023-24, so the Ducks game is close to a must-win.
Palát Continues to Struggle
Keefe was asked about Ondřej Palát after yesterday's game and had an interesting answer. He said he's liked two-thirds of his game (defensive and neutral zone), but he wants to see more offense from him.
Keefe has been an NHL coach for long enough to know when he sees a struggling veteran, so he won't throw Palát under the bus. Nor should you expect him to, given who Palát is, but you have to think he knows it's not working right now.
Palát was one of the Devils' worst players in Game Score against the Islanders, a common occurrence this season, and he finished with an xG% of just 31 percent. You could argue he shouldn't be in the lineup altogether, but that's not happening. At the very least, he shouldn't be in the top six.
Someone mentioned it to me in my replies on Twitter last night, but Stefan Noesen may not be a bad option for Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. Noesen is physical, an excellent forechecker, and would help open up space for Bratt and Hughes, much of what Keefe wants from Palát on that line.
Keefe could then roll with a third line of Paul Cotter, Erik Haula and Tomáš Tatar while burying Palát on the fourth line with Curtis Lazar and Nathan Bastian. That's the best option because Palát can't be playing meaningful minutes. He's been that much of a liability.
Quick Hits
Luke Hughes has had some decent moments since returning from an offseason injury, but you can tell he's not quite back yet. Some of his decision-making — like the turnover that led to the Red Wings' second goal — has been questionable. That's to be expected since it's a new coach with a new system, so it might take him some time to get comfortable.
Dawson Mercer's advanced stats look quite good, but he needs to convert them into points. Keefe shouldn't move him off a line with Hischier and Timo Meier since they're dominating territorial play. But he needs to start scoring, especially with some of the Devils' depth-scoring concerns.
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It’s almost like the problem isn’t with the individual goaltenders.