Devils' McLeod on the Rise With Breakout Season
Michael McLeod is on pace for 22 goals and 38 points and has become an invaluable player for the New Jersey Devils.
The injury bug has stricken the New Jersey Devils this season. Nico Hischier missed 11 games with an upper-body injury earlier in the campaign, while Jonas Siegenthaler, Dougie Hamilton, Ondřej Palát and Timo Meier are all out for the foreseeable future.
Also among those injuries is Jack Hughes, who's out week-to-week with an arm-related injury he suffered against the Chicago Blackhawks about a week ago. The good news is that Hischier has been playing well since returning from his injury, with 19 points in his last 20 games.
But someone else will need to step up in Hughes' absence for the team to stay in the playoff picture. Dawson Mercer is the obvious candidate; he's already moved to center. But there's another potential answer.
Michael McLeod is having the best season of his career by a country mile. He has 10 goals and 18 points in 38 games, putting him on pace to finish with 22 goals and 38 points. Let's look at the massive step forward he's taken this season and how he can help make up for some of what the Devils won't have in the lineup without Hughes.
McLeod’s Jump to Becoming a Top-9 Option
There were some signs McLeod was progressing as an NHLer last season. Though he only scored four goals, he finished with 22 assists, showing a step up in his playmaking ability. He also became one of the top faceoff men in the league, finishing with a faceoff percentage of 60.6 percent.
His underlying metrics were fine in the regular season, especially for the fourth-line role the Devils had him playing. But it was in the postseason when he somewhat had a coming-out party. Of course, he scored that big goal in Game 7 against the New York Rangers, but he was having a decent series before then.
Still, there weren't signs that McLeod would evolve into one of the Devils' most important players this season. His expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 11 leads all Devils skaters, ranking him ahead of Hischier, Tyler Toffoli, Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt.
That's not to say he's a better player, but he has been fantastic through 37 games. McLeod's defensive game has been his forte to this point of his career, and it's been a strength this season. His even-strength defense has been worth an xGAR of 3.4, second on the Devils to Palát.
But what's obviously been the biggest change in McLeod's game is the offensive breakout. Even head coach Lindy Ruff has been using McLeod in more offensive situations than in the past, and it's hard to blame him. His even-strength offense has been worth an xGAR of 6.2 and matches closely to his actual GAR, so his results have not been a fluke:
I think one thing that has been noticeably different from McLeod this season is that he seems to be much more efficient at carrying the puck through the neutral zone. We've seen time and time again him using his stickhandling to get around a defender to gain the offensive zone with puck possession. He's always been a good skater, but he's putting it to better use now.
Generally, I'd say a player like McLeod, who had no previous offensive track record, would be due for regression. But what he's doing to start this season seems generally sustainable, even if his shooting percentage of 15.9 percent is well above his career average of nine percent.
McLeod is creating plenty of quality chances, averaging the fifth-most high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the Devils. He's scored a few goals by driving to the net and getting close to the blue paint. If he keeps that up, 20 goals isn't unreasonable.
McLeod Can Help Ease Hughes’ Loss
There's no sugarcoating that the latest injury to Hughes will be tough to make up. Even if he wasn't driving the best results at five-on-five lately, he's still Jack Hughes. It doesn't take much for him to get going, and their power play will suffer without him, too.
Odds are Ruff will stick with Mercer at center for however long Hughes is out. We've seen Mercer's results suffer when playing down the middle instead of on the wing, so it'll be interesting to see how this next experiment at center goes.
The good news is that McLeod should be able to help. With his improvement in transition, he's shown more of an ability to drive a line. And that's greatly helped Alex Holtz, who's looked the best when stapled to McLeod's line.
McLeod and Holtz have logged about 106 minutes together this season and have a plus-10 goal differential and expected goals share (xG%) just above 57 percent. With Hughes out, the Devils will need that combo to continue scoring. And there's good reason to believe it can since Holtz has shown much scoring proclivity when on McLeod's line (he has four points in his last three games with McLeod).
And while Hughes has 45 points in 32 games, he actually hasn't been that efficient at five-on-five, at least not by his standards. McLeod has averaged 2.12 points per 60 minutes at full strength, slightly better than Hughes' 2.04 points per 60. If McLeod can keep up those rates at five-on-five, it should help make up for some of what they won't have without Hughes.
That speaks volumes to McLeod's significant step forward this season. A year ago, we wouldn't have been talking about him driving a line and making a player like Holtz a better and more effective scorer. Nor would we have mentioned him as someone who could help provide some scoring in the absence of Hughes.
But that's the kind of season McLeod is having to this point. He's been one of the Devils' most valuable players because he's taken such a step forward, specifically offensively. He’s not Hughes, but his play suggests the Devils could be able to get by in Hughes' absence. And that's a winning outcome for all parties involved.
Advanced stats from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick