Devils Need to Consider Long-Term Deal for Mercer

Though a bridge deal seems likely, the New Jersey Devils should give serious thought to signing Dawson Mercer long-term.

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An overwhelming majority of the New Jersey Devils' offseason work is finished. But one thing general manager Tom Fitzgerald has left to do is re-sign some of the team's restricted free agents, most notably Dawson Mercer.

Mercer did not have the best 2023-24 season, finishing with 20 goals and 33 points in 82 games. That was a significant decline from the 27 goals and 56 points he posted a season ago when the Devils won 52 games. That means he's probably heading for a bridge deal, but is that the best course of action? Let's examine why the Devils shouldn't rule out a long-term contract.

Mercer's Struggles in 2023-24

It didn't take long for Mercer to impact the Devils after they drafted him 18th overall in the 2020 draft. He made the team as a rookie in 2021-22 and had a solid first pro season, finishing with 17 goals and 42 points in 82 games.

Mercer took a big step forward during his sophomore year in 2022-23, finishing with 27 goals and 56 points that we mentioned above. The hope was that he'd build off that in his third year and at least finish with similar totals, but he took a big step back in 2023-24.

Though Mercer did finish with 20 goals again, there were many nights where he was invisible while regularly playing top-nine minutes. His on-ice metrics declined, as he finished with an expected goals share (xG%) of 49.65 percent, well below the 55.54 xG% he posted the previous season.

His five-on-five production also took a steep dive. Mercer went from averaging 2.04 points per 60 minutes in 2022-23 to 1.41 this past season. His shot generation dropped off, declining from 7.27 shots on goal per 60 minutes to 5.85.

And what's even more concerning is Mercer's microstats this past season were not good. Not at all. There were a few areas where he excelled (shots off high-danger passes, forecheck involvement, and zone exits), but there was not much to suggest that he was getting unlucky:

If there's one metric that looked favorably on Mercer, it was expected goals above replacement (xGAR). His play this season was worth a total xGAR of 7.7, well above his actual GAR of minus-3.5.

Still, there isn't much to suggest Mercer should get a long-term extension this offseason. So why shouldn't the Devils rule it out? There are a couple of reasons, and they have to do with a couple of young defensemen who are due for paydays sooner rather than later.

Devils Need to Worry About Long-Term Cap Picture

Luke Hughes and Šimon Nemec. The youngest Hughes brother became eligible for an extension on July 1 since he's entering the final year of his entry-level contract. Could the Devils extend him this offseason? I wouldn't rule it out, and it could be a big number.