What Does the Future Hold for Devils' Mercer?
Dawson Mercer's future with the New Jersey Devils remains one of the bigger questions hanging over their offseason.
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Dawson Mercer's time with the New Jersey Devils has had its ups and downs. He totaled 27 goals and 56 points in 82 games during the 2022-23 season and looked on his way to becoming a valuable top-six contributor.
Unfortunately, Mercer's game has stagnated since 2022-23. He hasn't been awful, but nor has he come close to replicating that 27-goal, 56-point stat line. Maybe saying he's at an inflection point with the Devils is a stretch, but his status with the organization is a lingering question hanging over this offseason.
If the Devils do trade him, where could he end up? Vice versa, what could his role be if general manager Tom Fitzgerald decides to hang onto him?
Potential Trade Destinations for Mercer
Mercer has popped up on some trade boards here and there, most notably Nick Kypreos' for Sportsnet earlier this summer; he's not on the most recent iteration.
If the Devils do trade Mercer, it'll be in a hockey trade. I'm sure there'd be plenty of suitors for a 24-year-old on a good contract with scoring upside, but who could be the best fits?
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks seem to be in a bit of a stalemate with Mason McTavish, who's a restricted free agent. Insiders like Chris Johnston and Frank Seravalli have reported that teams have considered tendering offer sheets for McTavish. But regardless, there are plenty of teams interested.
Usually in cases like this, teams agree to terms with an RFA of McTavish's caliber. But if the two sides can't find common ground on a new contract and a trade becomes more likely, a Mercer for McTavish swap could make sense for both sides, especially if you can find a way to force Ondřej Palát on the Ducks.
The Devils would have to sign McTavish, likely to a bridge deal since Luke Hughes is due for an extension. But a 1-2-3 punch of Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and McTavish would be among the best in the league. McTavish could easily move up the lineup if an injury arises and would ease any concerns about the Devils not having proper center depth.
Seattle Kraken
If not the Ducks, another team out west who could make sense as a trade target is the Seattle Kraken. A couple of days ago, I wrote about how the Devils still need to replace Tyler Toffoli, and the Kraken may have the solution.
Jared McCann has been one of the more underrated scorers in the NHL over the last three seasons, averaging 31 goals and 65 points per 82 games. He has one of the best shots in the NHL, with his top shot speed ranking in the 99th percentile this past season, making him an ideal fit alongside Hughes and Jesper Bratt or even Hischier.
McCann is under contract for the next two seasons at a cap hit of $5 million, so moving Mercer for McCann would only add a net of $1 million to the Devils' books. For a team that lacked finishing ability in 2024-25, he'd almost surely be an upgrade.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins seem to be the only true sellers this offseason. Among the players they could trade are Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell. I'd think long and hard about giving up Mercer for two players nearly a decade older than him, but it's hard to argue they wouldn't be upgrades.
Rust has consistently been one of the better top-six scorers in the NHL during his career. He's a high-danger chance machine and backs it up by converting those grade-A opportunities. Rakell is coming off a career season, but even with regression, he's probably good for 25-30 goals and 55-60 points.
I would not include a first-round pick if Mercer is in a package for either Rust or Rakell, but there could be a deal to be had, similar to when the Devils gave up Yegor Sharangovich and a mid-round pick to acquire Toffoli.
The difference here is that Rakell and Rust both have three years left on their contracts. They wouldn't be one-year rentals like Toffoli, so giving Mercer up for either wouldn't feel as problematic since they have team control.
And if the Devils Keep Mercer?
It's quite possible the Devils won't trade Mercer before the start of the 2025-26 season, especially with how this offseason is going. He's a capable middle-six forward, so he'd help the team's depth, but Sheldon Keefe has to do a better job of optimizing him in the lineup than he did this past season.
Some of this depends on whether the Devils add a center or top-six winger this offseason (w/o giving up Mercer, of course), but he could find himself playing either position next season.
If Mercer is the third-line center, he'll need some skill on his wings. He's not much of a play driver, at least not at this point in his career, so he'll need better options than some of the players he centered this past season.
Evgeny Dadonov isn't a play driver, but he's effective in transition, skates well and would bring some pace and creativity to that line. Add Arseniy Gritsyuk as the third wheel, and that could be a fun third line that possibly gets the best out of Mercer in that situation.
I say get the best out of Mercer in that situation because in an ideal world, he's playing on the wing somewhere in the top six. He's had success with Hischier, so that could work, but Keefe needs to give Mercer more of a run alongside Jack Hughes.
Hughes and Mercer have played about 520 minutes together over the last three seasons and have an expected goals share (xG%) of 52.5 percent. They've outscored their opponents 33-24, and have controlled 55.5 percent of the high-danger opportunities.
I don't have any doubt in my mind that Mercer would be an upgrade on that line over Palát. Mercer is one of the team's better forecheckers, and his forecheck involvement was significantly better than Palát's this past season (85th percentile to 20th for Palát).
If the argument is that Palát fits on a line with Hughes and Bratt because he does things off the puck to open up space for Hughes and Bratt, Mercer is likely to be that much better.
Devils Have a Decision to Make
We'll see what happens with Mercer over the coming weeks. If the Devils can turn him into McCann or McTavish, it'd be hard to argue against doing that trade. But there's also value in bringing him back and trying to better optimize his skill set in whatever top-nine role that may be. Either way, the Devils could come out winners no matter their decision.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Advanced Hockey Stats
Hey Alex, now that the verdict is in, are Mike McCloud’s rights still owned by the Devils? Do you think he signs with us and does he solve the third line center issue?