Devils Miss Dougie Hamilton

Šimon Nemec has filled in admirably for an injured Dougie Hamilton, but a closer look suggests the New Jersey Devils miss their top defenseman.

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Šimon Nemec has filled in admirably for Dougie Hamilton since Hamilton went down with a torn pectoral muscle about a month ago. But make no mistake, the Devils do miss their top defenseman. 

If you were to argue the Devils don't miss Hamilton defensively, you'd have some merit to that. On offense is a different story, though. A look at the Devils' five-on-five numbers before and after the injury would suggest it's about the same. But a deeper dive shows their offense has become less dynamic. 

Let's look at how the Devils' offense differs with and without Hamilton and what general manager Tom Fitzgerald could do to replace what they've lost without Hamilton. 

Devils’ Numbers Without Hamilton

The Devils signed Hamilton to a seven-year, $63 million deal to provide offense, and that's what he's done. He finished with 22 goals and 74 points a season ago and was on pace for 20 goals and 66 points this season before getting hurt. 

The Devils' five-on-five offense was humming when Hamilton was on the ice, averaging 3.50 expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Only Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt have a higher xGF/60 this season. 

As mentioned, the Devils' five-on-five offense before and after the injury doesn't look too different. They were generating 2.84 xGF/60 before he got hurt and have been generating 2.82 xGF/60 since he got hurt on Nov. 28. 

That doesn't suggest the Devils miss Hamilton, but one way to isolate his impact is by looking at his relative stats. That helps paint a better picture of the Devils' offense with and without him.

Hamilton's relative xGF/60 is 1.04, meaning the Devils average 1.04 more expected goals per 60 when he's on the ice than when he's not. That means the Devils' offense was generating around 2.5 xGF/60 when he was in the lineup and off the ice. 

Via Natural Stat Trick, you can also isolate how many expected goals Hamilton generates in the offensive zone compared to other Devils’ defensemen. This shouldn't be a surprise since he's one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL, but there's a noticeable difference in the numbers. 

Other Devils defensemen average around 2.5 to 2.6 xGF/60, while Hamilton is around 3.2. There's no doubt his offense is what makes the Devils a dominant five-on-five team, something they haven't quite been since he went out of the lineup. 

Since the injury, the Devils have an expected goals share (xG%) of 52.9 percent. That's still solid and the sixth-best rate in the NHL over that stretch. But that number approaches the mid to high 50s with him in the lineup; it was 54.2 percent at the time of the injury.