Devils Need to Avoid Zacha Mistake If They Trade Mercer
The New Jersey Devils could very well hang on to Dawson Mercer, but they can't afford a repeat of the Pavel Zacha trade if they deal him away.
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Dawson Mercer has had an up-and-down tenure with the New Jersey Devils, but the 2025-26 season was a step in the right direction.
Mercer finished with 20 goals and 42 points in 82 games, and his underlying metrics showed notable progression.
However, his name has been circulating in the rumor mill over the last year or so. The Devils have a new front office with Sunny Mehta and Braden Birch taking over, so we’ll see if those rumors persist as we get closer to the NHL Draft.
If Mehta does decide to trade Mercer, he must avoid making the same mistake Tom Fitzgerald made with Pavel Zacha a few years ago.
Mercer’s 2025-26 Season
I wouldn’t say this was a make-or-break year for Mercer with the Devils, but he had stagnated after an impressive 2022-23 campaign that saw him total nearly 30 goals and 60 points.
The Devils needed to see some progression from Mercer, and he delivered. He was one of the team’s better five-on-five players in 2025-26, finishing with an expected goals share (xG%) of 52.57 percent and showing improvement in his two-way game.
The Devils averaged 2.82 expected goals per 60 minutes while allowing just 2.54 per 60 when Mercer was on the ice at five-on-five.
Generally speaking, the process behind Mercer’s expected numbers showed improvement. He was better than he was in transition last season, and his passing metrics graded out well.
Mercer was also one of the Devils’ better players at getting shots off from high-danger passes. He still has more to give as a shooter, but at least he was getting quality shots off from dangerous passes:
Mercer spent most of his time in the top six this season, specifically with Timo Meier and Nico Hischier. They played well as a trio, totaling an xG% of 59.35 percent and controlling 60.82 percent of the high-danger chances.
They didn’t score much as a unit early in the season, but they performed well after the Olympic break. Mercer even found a bit of rhythm, as he totaled five goals and nine points across his final 13 games.
Even though there was a lull in production during the middle of the season, it’s hard to argue that the 2025-26 season wasn’t a step in the right direction for Mercer. Everyone struggled from Jack Hughes’ injury to the Olympic break, so it wasn’t just Mercer, either.
Do Not Repeat the Zacha Trade
This isn’t to say that the Devils should have hung on to Zacha in 2022, even though he’s the type of versatile forward they could use in their lineup right now.
Hindsight is 20/20, but trading Zacha for Erik Haula has come back to haunt the Devils. Haula did have a couple of good seasons with the Devils, but when looking back on that trade, the process was a bit flawed.
Why is that?
Zacha was a 24-year-old restricted free agent at the time of the trade, while Haula was a 30-year-old pending UFA. The Devils did re-sign Haula after his first season in New Jersey. Still, Fitzgerald should have been looking to acquire another mid-20s forward with team control for Zacha.
The past is the past. You’d probably like a redo on that one if you’re the Devils, but that’s something Mehta must avoid if he trades Mercer this offseason.
We’ll see what the rumor mill and trade market look like in the coming weeks. But let’s say Pavel Dorofeyev becomes available because the Vegas Golden Knights can’t find the cap space to pay him. That’s a player you’d package Mercer for to upgrade on the wing.
Dorofeyev has totaled 35+ goals in each of the last two seasons and has one of the best shots in the game. He’d be an ideal fit for the Devils.
Jordan Kyrou is another player who’d make sense if Mehta were to part with Mercer. Kyrou did have a down season, but he had the fourth-best xG% in the NHL among forwards with at least 750 minutes logged.
Kyrou is a bit older than Dorofeyev, but he has multiple years of team control and a proven track record of 30+ goals and 60+ points. I’d bet on him bouncing back.
There will surely be other players who come up in the rumor mill over the next few weeks that you’d consider trading Mercer for, but you get the point.
Finding someone in a similar age range and who would be a sure upgrade over Mercer is the approach Mehta should take if he were to trade Mercer.
That’s not what Haula was when the Devils acquired him, and Zacha has gone on to become a very good player for the Bruins; he’s averaged 22 goals and 58 points per 82 games in four seasons with the Boston Bruins.
If anything, the 2025-26 season showed Mercer can be a solution for the Devils. Having said that, Mehta wouldn’t be doing his job if he weren’t exploring what he could get for Mercer this offseason.
Fortunately, I don’t think we’ll have to worry about Mehta making a similar mistake. He will make data-driven decisions, and he’ll likely have a different approach than Fitzgerald did when he dealt Zacha to the Bruins.
There’s good reason to keep Mercer, but if Mehta trades him, it will be for someone who is a sure upgrade. We’ll see what he decides to do in the coming weeks and months.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick