Devils Need to Go All-In on Winning Metro
If the New Jersey Devils want to make a run in the playoffs, they need to go all-in on winning the Metro to avoid a grueling Round 1 matchup.
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On Wednesday, the New Jersey Devils will play their 41st game of the season when they take on the Los Angeles Kings. They've checked off just about every box they had at the start of the season, as they're 24-12-3 and in first place in the Metropolitan Division.
Even when adjusting for points percentage, the Devils are second in the Metro and the Eastern Conference. So, what goals should they have their sights set on for the second half of the season? There are a couple, but none are more important than pushing for first place in the Metro.
Avoid the Capitals & Hurricanes in Round 1
It's nice that things have worked out this way. But the Devils have already concluded their season series against the Carolina Hurricanes and Washington Capitals, the two other teams essentially locked into top-three spots in the Metro.
The Devils split their season series with the Capitals and Hurricanes, winning and losing twice. Do I think the Devils can't beat the Capitals and Hurricanes in a playoff series? Not at all. If anything, their season series against each team proved they could hang with them in a best-of-seven.
However, no one said it'd be easy, and if the Devils finish as the No. 2 seed in the Metro, they're very likely to get one of them in the first round of the playoffs.
The Capitals have been the biggest pleasant surprise of the season nearing the halfway point, totaling a 24-10-2 record and a plus-37 goal differential. For those who don't remember, the Capitals failed upward into the playoffs with a minus-37 goal differential last season.
Their improvement isn't completely fluky, either. They have a 52.78 expected goals share (xG%) at five-on-five, ranked sixth in the NHL. Younger players like Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas have taken significant steps forward, while Dylan Strome is having a career year.
Alex Ovechkin and Pierre-Luc Dubois are having bounce-back seasons as well, but I said not completely fluky because the Capitals are riding some high percentages. Their five-on-five shooting percentage of 11.29 percent is second in the NHL, while it's 13.02 percent at all strengths, third league-wide.
They might regress in the second half of the season, but they also have some high-end finishers, so they might just be that team this season. And even if they are, they're top ten in xG%. They're legit. Would you want to play them in the first round? Probably not.
Many of the same arguments apply to the Hurricanes. This is one of their "weaker" teams in recent seasons, but they're still quite good. Their 55.72 xG% is first in the NHL, and they've changed their game up to generate more offense off the rush.
They might not be as strong defensively as they've been recently, and their goaltending is certainly a question mark right now, but they're not a team you want to play in the first round.
As the Devils' four games against the Hurricanes showed, a first-round playoff series against them would likely be a grinding, physical matchup that could go seven games. If you want to make a run in the playoffs, you'll want to avoid that in Round 1.
Potential Wild-Card Teams Offer Significantly More Favorable Matchups
We laid out a pretty good case of why you don't want to finish second or third in the Metro this season. It makes the path to the Stanley Cup that much more difficult.
There are some pretty good teams in the Eastern Conference this season, but let's look at who is positioning themselves to grab the two wild-card spots.
Right now, the Ottawa Senators occupy the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Pittsburgh Penguins are ninth and are just one point behind the Senators for WC2. Both teams are playing good hockey these days, too.
The Senators are 11-4-1 across their last 16 games, while the Penguins are 10-4-1 in their previous 15. Perhaps the New York Rangers get it together at some point and get back in the mix for the WC2. But for now, the Penguins and Senators look like the best-positioned teams to clinch that spot.
The Senators seem to have a more sustainable formula for making the playoffs than the Penguins. Either way, you'll want to play the Senators or Penguins in the first round over the Capitals or Hurricanes without a doubt.
The Devils have matched up well against the Penguins for a few seasons; they're much younger, more skilled, and faster than the Penguins. Meanwhile, the Senators would be in the playoffs for the first time in eight years. They're talented, but that matchup should favor the Devils.
That occurs if the Devils secure the top spot in the Eastern Conference. But let's say they win the Metro and have a worse record than whoever wins the Atlantic. That'll give them a matchup with WC1, which should also be an advantage.
As of now, the Tampa Bay Lightning occupy WC1, but odds are that won't last. They have three games in hand on the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs and four on the Boston Bruins. Chances are they will catch someone in the standings in the Atlantic.
I'm not a betting man, but I'd guess the Bruins end up as WC1 in the Eastern Conference. They've been a matchup problem for the Devils in seasons past, but these aren't the same Bruins.
Granted, they've been getting better results since Joe Sacco took over for Jim Montgomery, but they're playing low-event defensive hockey that doesn't translate well to the playoffs anymore. The Bruins are averaging just 2.28 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five under Sacco, which likely won't cut it in the playoffs.
The Bruins are 12-5-1 under Sacco, so perhaps they secure a top-three spot in the Atlantic. Still, I'd bet on the Lightning, who are only two points back of the Bruins with four games in hand, catching them and pulling away. If so, the Bruins should be another favorable matchup for the Devils.
Winning the Metro Avoids the Worst First-Round Matchup
There's no beating around the bush. The Devils have to go all-in on winning the division in the second half of the season. That's not to say they can't beat the Capitals or Hurricanes in Round 1, but a best-of-seven against either team would likely be extremely grueling.
Winning the division would position the Devils to face the Senators, Penguins, or Bruins in Round 1. The NHL playoffs are a war of attrition as much as anything else, and if you can avoid a matchup against the Hurricanes or Capitals in the first round, the path to the Stanley Cup becomes much more viable.
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And, obviously, finish first and you only have to beat one of them. Finish second and you have to beat both. First is an easier path.