Devils' Noesen Adds Needed Two-Way Presence in Bottom 6
Stefan Noesen will contribute some offensively, but his defensive presence may help the New Jersey Devils the most
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The first thing we talked about with Stefan Noesen returning to New Jersey is how he'd help the Devils' power play. Of course, there's also how he should help the team at five-on-five and improve their bottom six, which struggled a season ago.
Noesen totaled 27 goals and 73 points in his two seasons with the Carolina Hurricanes. Not only was he productive, but his five-on-five numbers were excellent, as is the case with most players who play for the Hurricanes. If his last two seasons are any indication, he'll add something different to the Devils' bottom six, just like Paul Cotter.
Devils Will Welcome Noesen's Two-Way Presence
As most know, this isn't Noesen's first go-around with the Devils. He was an instrumental part of their run to the playoffs during the 2017-18 season, forming a shutdown line with Blake Coleman and Travis Zajac. He finished that season with 13 goals and 27 points in 72 games, but unfortunately, he couldn't repeat it.
Noesen totaled just three goals and eight points in 41 games the following season. From there on, he bounced around with various NHL and AHL organizations before finding a home with the Hurricanes. We talked about Noesen's resurgence with the Hurricanes a bit here, so we won't go into terrible detail again.
Long story short, Noesen was a very effective five-on-five player for the Hurricanes. He totaled an expected goals share (xG%) of 64 percent in 2022-23 and was just above 58 percent last season. He was also an efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 1.77 points per 60 minutes.
Noesen is not the fleetest of foot, but he's physical and will get involved on the forecheck. Though he can score goals, he's more of a passer, at least at five-on-five. A look at his microstats shows he did well in creating primary assists, chance assists, and high-danger passes. That's not too much of a surprise, considering he finished with 23 assists in each of his two seasons with the Hurricanes.
Not only does Noesen have some offensive upside, but he was also one of the Hurricanes' defensive stalwarts. He was one of their top shot suppressors, allowing 1.99 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in his two seasons in Raleigh.
I'd bet on some Hurricanes system stuff inflating that number, but I'm still pretty confident Noesen is a sound defensive forward. That was the case during the 2017-18 season with the Devils, as he was also one of the team's top shot suppressors, allowing 2.09 xGA/60 when he was on the ice.
Even if the Hurricanes' system made his defensive numbers look a little better than they actually are, I'd still bet on Noesen being one of the Devils' better defensive forwards next season. That two-way presence is something they didn't have much of in their bottom six this past season, especially after Michael McLeod took an indefinite leave of absence on charges related to the 2018 WJC case.
Now, with Noesen, the Devils should have more of a defensive presence in the bottom six. And though I'm not sure he'll be part of a line that was as good defensively as with Zajac and Coleman, there's potential for him to thrive with a new stout two-way line this coming season.
Ondřej Palát may not have produced much offensively in 2022-23, but the Devils still tilted the ice in their favor when he was on the ice. Part of that was because of his defensive game, as his even-strength defense was worth an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 3.7, ranked second among Devils forwards.
Another forward who excelled defensively was Erik Haula, whose even-strength defense was worth an xGAR of 6.1, ranked first among all Devils skaters. That number was even among the top of all forwards league-wide, ranking eighth. Can Haula repeat a defensive season like that? We shall see, but the point is the Devils may have a pretty good shutdown line in the makings between Palát, Haula and Noesen.
It's hard to say the Devils had that at any point last season. They did at times in 2022-23 with Nico Hischier and Tomáš Tatar, but that combo also dominated in the offensive zone. While Palát, Haula and Noesen should be able to chip in a bit offensively, I could see them being a favorite for Sheldon Keefe in the defensive zone.
That's how I expect the Devils to use Noesen, too. He'll probably get some power-play time, given his success there with the Hurricanes. But at five-on-five, he should settle into a third-line role on a potential shutdown unit with Palát and Haula.
Signing Noesen won't break much ground for the Devils, but it was important to add a player like him this offseason. He'll help on the power play, score a bit at five-on-five, and should be one of the team's best defensive forwards while adding some physicality. As long as he stays healthy, he should upgrade the team's bottom-six depth with his two-way presence.
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