Devils Need To Part Ways With Palát This Offseason
Ondrej Palát's play fell off a cliff this season, and he's unlikely to improve from here on out.
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Yesterday, we looked back on the New Jersey Devils' season and how they had too many passengers. That, of course, will lead to changes this offseason. General manager Tom Fitzgerald hinted at as much during his end-of-season press conference.
Because the Devils are light on cap space, they need to clear some contracts off the books to improve the roster. There are a few candidates, but I want to focus on one player today, that being Ondřej Palát.
On the surface, his 2024-25 wasn't terrible. He finished with 15 goals and 28 points, respectable numbers, but it's certainly not worth his $6 million cap hit. And judging by his underlying metrics, his play will only decline further from here on out.
Palát Fell Off a Cliff in 2024-25
Did the Devils pivot to Palát after missing out on Johnny Gaudreau in free agency in 2022? We'll never know for sure, but it certainly hasn't worked out as intended in his three years in New Jersey.
Palát missed a significant portion of the 2022-23 season, his first with the Devils, due to injury. He had some fine moments when he returned, especially in the Devils' first-round playoff series against the New York Rangers, but he hasn't been able to create the magic he had in Tampa.
Palát's impacts were surprisingly excellent a season ago, but he finished with just 11 goals and 31 points. Ultimately, counting totals determine contract value, and it was a second season where Palát didn't live up to his $6 million cap hit.
I was cautiously optimistic that Palát had something left in the tank since his impacts were excellent last season, but his play fell off a cliff in 2024-25. It might not seem that way because he scored 15 goals, but there are signs of a precipitous decline.
Palát was one of the Devils' worst five-on-five players, finishing with an expected goals share (xG%) of 46.26 percent. He spent most of the season on a line with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, but still finished underwater in xG%.
Palát, Hughes and Bratt's numbers as a line were solid. They finished with a 53.08 xG% and outscored teams 30-22, but Hughes and Bratt's xG% improved to 61.18 percent when Palát wasn't on their line. He was a drag, and that infamous tweet from Dimitri Filipovic signals how much Palát bogged down that line.
Not only was Palát a drag on Bratt and Hughes' line, but he was a drag on pretty much any line Sheldon Keefe put him on. Palát and Hischier didn't play much together this season (just 70 minutes as linemates), but Hischier's xG% was nearly eight percent better away from Palát.
Dawson Mercer played nearly 200 minutes with Palát this season, but totaled just a 38.04 xG%. That number improved to 52.68 percent when he was away from Palát. I think you get the point.
To take it a step further, look at his one-year RAPM chart from Evolving Hockey. Palát was a massive net-negative at even strength:
I don't think you can even justify keeping Palát as a fourth-liner because there won't be the players to prop him up in the bottom six, even with improvements coming this summer. That's why the Devils have to clear the contract, but it might not be easy.
How Will the Devils Move Palát?
I wish it were as easy as saying trade Palát to a team that needs to hit the cap floor, but it's not. He has a full no-move clause, so he will have plenty of say in where he goes.
However, his no-trade clause shifts from a full NTC to a 10-team trade list on July 1, meaning Palát will submit a list to the Devils of ten teams he'd accept a trade to.
Todd Cordell touched on it in his post for Infernal Access yesterday, but the Anaheim Ducks are an ideal trade fit for dumping Palát's contract. Pat Verbeek was a Lightning executive when the two were in Tampa, and Alex Killorn is now a Duck.
The Ducks also have a ton of cap space, and even though they want to make the playoffs next season, they could probably afford to take on Palát's contract for two years. It could be a comfortable landing spot for him if the Devils force his hand into moving.
Plus, if you know the team is trying to move on from you, wouldn't you want to move on if you know you're not wanted? That's why I wouldn't rule out the Devils being able to clear his contract completely via a trade. But it won't be easy, even though his NTC shifts to something more manageable on July 1.
A Buyout Won't Be Cheap
If the Devils can't trade Palát, a buyout is the next logical step. This is also complicated because of his NMC. To buy out a player in the NHL, you have to place him on waivers for the purpose of contract termination.
Either Palát has to agree to waive his NMC so the Devils can place him on waivers to buy him out, or the two sides can agree on a buyout without clearing waivers. Again, you'd have to think that if you know the Devils are trying to move on, the two sides will find a solution.
A Palát buyout is not cheap, either. The Devils get some relief for the remaining two years of his contract, then have a dead cap hit of around $1.5 million for two years:
The dead hit for two years shouldn't matter too much since the cap ceiling should be around $110-120 million. However, Nico Hischier is due for a contract extension in two years, Luke Hughes will have a much pricier cap hit, and who knows what will happen with Quinn Hughes and his free agency in two years. Palát's dead cap hit could prove problematic if the Devils don't manage their finances properly.
That's why finding a suitable trade partner for Palát is the best path toward clearing his contract. A buyout is not cheap, so getting his contract off the books entirely would be a major win for the Devils.
Regardless, the Devils have to move on from Palát this offseason. It's just time, and it's unlikely his play will get better from here. A fresh start for everyone is probably best for all involved, and the Devils need to do it if they want to improve their roster.
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