Devils' Palat Needs To Score More in 2024-25
Ondrej Palát was better than the counting totals suggested in 2023-24, but the New Jersey Devils still need more offense from him in 2024-25.
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I think we all knew the moment the New Jersey Devils signed Ondřej Palát that his five-year, $6 million AAV contract could become problematic. While it's far from one of the worst contracts in the NHL, it is one of the weaker ones the Devils have on their books.
But even though Palát is not a $6 million player, he is still quite good. Sure, the scoring hasn't been there. But at least in 2023-24, that was partially bad luck. The Devils don't need him to be the Palát he was in Tampa, but they do need more offense from him. And there is reason to be encouraged that he might have more to offer.
Palát’s Game Improved in 2023-24
Much like Dougie Hamilton's first season with the Devils, Palát's first in New Jersey was undone by injuries. Only six games into 2022-23, he needed groin surgery that kept him out for two-plus months.
As you can imagine, the results for the season as a whole weren't great. Palát finished with 23 points in 49 games — a 38-point pace over 82 games. At least in typical Palát fashion, he showed up in the playoffs and was a significant factor in the Devils eliminating the New York Rangers in Round 1 of the 2023 playoffs. But the whole product was less than ideal.
Essentially, Palát's first season was a wash. I'm no doctor, but I'd have to imagine he was never 100 percent after returning from surgery. Perhaps it showed in his RAPM chart from Evolving Hockey, as his impacts were just so-so:
There's no doubt the Devils needed more from Palát in Season 2, and depending on how you look at it, they did get more. Was it scoring? No. He only totaled 31 points across 71 games. He had a shooting percentage of 10.2, a bit lower than his 11.8 career percentage, so that wasn't the bad luck part.
However, some of his other offensive metrics point to a player providing positive value in that area of the ice. His even-strength offense was worth an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 8.3, so why did he only total 31 points?
Palát finished with an on-ice shooting percentage of 8.08 last season, the lowest of his career. Coincidentally (or maybe not), the second lowest of his career came in 2022-23, his first season with the Devils. But there is a difference between the two years.
One) The offense may not have been there, but Palát was outstanding defensively last season. His even-strength defense was worth an xGAR of 3.7, second on the team to Erik Haula.
And even though Palát didn’t score much, he was significantly better last season than in 2022-23. His impacts and value were better across the board, whether you look at his RAPM chart or his GAR/xGAR player card from Evolving Hockey.
Notice that the GAR bar on Palat's EV offense is significantly lower than his xGAR. That means he underperformed his expected results offensively, so perhaps he still has some gas left in the tank as an offensive player.
I'll spare you another chart, but Palát's microstats were solid last season. The shooting metrics aren't there like during his time with the Lightning, but the playmaking grades out well. He can still create offense off the rush, and he's still good in transition, even though he's not the fleetest of foot.
Palát can also still hang with some of the Devils' top players. He spent plenty of time with Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt and posted excellent results with them as linemates. They logged 267 minutes together and totaled an expected goals share (xG%) of 64.1 percent and a goal differential of plus-8 (21-13).
Would I play Palát in a top-six role this coming season? That depends on how Tomáš Tatar looks in his return to the Devils, but Palát showed last season that he can still positively impact the top six.
What Can Palát Provide Offensively?
It's unlikely we get to the point where Palát is worth more than his $6 million AAV, but there's still a good player here. And though he's not a $6 million forward, he wasn't that far off in Dom's model at The Athletic; Palát had a market value of $4.7 million this past season.
This isn't a given that one) Palát is 33, and two) he's produced at a sub-40-point pace over the last two seasons. But based on his results last season, he might still have more to offer offensively than he's shown in his first two years with the Devils.
I wouldn't bank on 50-plus points at this point in his career, but Palát did finish with 18 goals and 49 points in his final year with the Lightning. If he can pot 15-20 goals and around 45 points for the Devils next season, that'd elevate the team's depth, especially if the high-end defensive results repeat themselves.
And frankly, the Devils need that from him. Tatar isn't guaranteed to bounce back after a tough 2023-24 between the Seattle Kraken and Colorado Avalanche, so there is some concern scoring-wise at left wing in the middle six.
Palát rebounding offensively would ease those concerns, and his 2023-24 results suggest that might be possible. If that happens, it makes what should be a good Devils team even better. Otherwise, this could be your 2024 trade deadline target come February/March.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey; microstats from Corey Sznajder/JFresh Hockey