Devils' Pesce & Luke Hughes May Not Be Ideal Partners
Luke Hughes will get there eventually, but pairing him with Brett Pesce to start 2024-25 may not be the best fit.
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The New Jersey Devils will have plenty of time to figure out who plays alongside who once training camp begins in September. But it's fun to speculate and guess now, especially since the Devils made plenty of additions this offseason and will have quite a few new faces.
Among their big-name additions was signing Brett Pesce to a six-year deal with an average annual value (AAV) of $5.5 million. Pairing him up with Luke Hughes seems like a popular kick, but the youngest Hughes brother may not be ready for that just yet. Let's look at why that's the case and who could fit best with Pesce.
Pesce Will Get Difficult Defensive Minutes
The Devils did not bring in Pesce to play soft defensive minutes. An AAV of $5.5 million means he's playing top-four ice time, and based on his usage in Carolina, there's a good chance he will become the Devils' top shutdown defender next season.
I talked a bit about this in an article about Pesce a week ago, but if you didn't catch that, let's review it again. Though you wouldn't be incorrect in assuming Jaccob Slavin logged difficult minutes with the Hurricanes, it was actually Pesce who logged the most ice time over the last three seasons.
The difference between the two was minimal, anywhere from 2-5 percent, but Hurricanes coach Rod Brind'Amour consistently played Pesce against top competition. In two of the last three seasons, he played just above 39 percent of his minutes against elite competition, indicating someone playing a shutdown role.
It's not hard to see why Pesce would fare well in a shutdown role, even though his offensive impacts grade out better in some models. He's one of the best rush defenders in the NHL, and he does well to move the puck out of the defensive zone with possession. Plus, he defends the slot and high-danger areas quite well. I'm sure these are all reasons the Devils signed him and traded John Marino to Utah HC.
There's a good chance that Pesce will log similar minutes for the Devils, and if that's the case, that might not be the best fit for Hughes. The Devils did have to give Hughes top-four minutes more than they would have liked last season, but that was out of necessity due to injuries to Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton, who both significant time.
Hughes did have some success playing difficult minutes, but it didn't last long. Around Jan. 5, which coincides with Siegenthaler breaking his foot, Hughes' play began to fall off as his minutes became more difficult. As you'll see in the chart below, there was a steep decline in his Game Score average from early February until the Devils fired Lindy Ruff just before the trade deadline:
But as you'll notice, Hughes had a strong close to 2023-24 when Travis Green was the interim coach. While Green had his flaws, one of the things he did well was shift Hughes' usage and play him in a sheltered role alongside Nick DeSimone or whoever was playing softer minutes.
Hughes' Game Score skyrocketed, and he finished with 15 points in his final 20 games. That type of role suits him well, and since he'll only be a second-year pro in 2024-25, it might still suit him best, especially to start the season. That also means playing alongside Pesce probably won't work all that well, so let's look at other options.
The Best Fits for Pesce
If Pesce and Hughes aren't a match, who's best to fill that role? The obvious candidate would be another new signee, Brenden Dillon. I have some concerns about Dillon's game, but Pesce might be the right partner for him.
Dillon's biggest weaknesses, moving the puck and defending the rush, are two of Pesce's strengths. And though Dillon's microstats were a mixed bag, his impacts were still solid this past season. He also logged a healthy dose of ice time in the top four and even spent plenty of time playing against elite competition (33.9 percent, to be exact).
Part of me thinks Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald is looking to find his Ryan Graves and Marino shutdown pair again. I can't blame him, either, as they were incredibly effective in 2022-23, helping the Devils put together one of the best five-on-five defenses in the NHL.
I don't think Dillon and Pesce have the same upside as Graves and Marino; Graves is much more mobile than Dillon. But I can see them being a very effective shutdown pair, something the Devils struggled to have consistently this past season.
I'd also be interested to see how Siegenthaler fares with Pesce. Siegenthaler struggled mightily in 2023-24, but I don't think his game can regress much further. If he bounces back, he might be a good fit for Pesce. He's a similar defenseman to Dillon, but when on his game, Siegenthaler is a much more effective rush defender. We'll see how that plays out during the preseason, but that's another option Sheldon Keefe will have.
While Hughes could be a good fit alongside Pesce at some point, pairing him up with Pesce to start 2024-25 might not be best. Hughes will get there at some point. His defensive game still needs improvement, but the tools are there for him to become a high-end defender.
For now, keeping Hughes' minutes sheltered is probably in his best interest. And it might be in the Devils' best interest, too, as it puts him in a position to succeed, just as he did to close last season. And they don't have to worry about him struggling in a shutdown role with Pesce.
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Microstats from JFresh Hockey/Corey Sznajder, advanced stats from PuckIQ
With Hamilton already set as the top pair right handed defender, does that leave Hughes and Nemec as an offensive specialty third pairing?