Devils' Pesce Should Provide Change-up on Defense
Though Brett Pesce is a similar defenseman to John Marino, he should provide a change-up to the New Jersey Devils' blue line.
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First, there was Johnathan Kovacevic. Then there was Brenden Dillon. Now, we'll look at the Devils' marquee addition on defense this offseason, Brett Pesce, who signed a six-year deal at a cap hit of $5.5 million. In doing so, the Devils traded John Marino to the Utah Hockey Club for two second-round picks, one of which became goaltender Mikhail Yegorov at the 2024 draft.
The Devils are looking for a change-up from Marino, and though Pesce is a similar defenseman, he excels in some areas that Marino didn't. Let's look at his strengths and how he will likely be the Devils' next shutdown defender.
Pesce's Strengths
Pesce was a third-round pick of the Hurricanes at the 2013 draft and had spent his entire career with the Hurricanes until signing with the Devils. Aside from his rookie year, he's averaged over 20 minutes of ice time per game in every season.
We're not going to go over every season of Pesce's career because 1) that's crazy, and 2) the last two to three seasons of his career will give us the best idea of what to expect of him in a Devils sweater.
What's interesting about Pesce is that some of his offensive metrics grade out better than his defensive ones, even though I would call him more of a defensive defenseman. That changes when you look at his microstats, however, and gives us a better idea of the defenseman he is.
Pesce is one of the best rush defenders in the league, ranking in the 100th percentile in entry denial rate and 96th percentile in possession entry prevention. The Devils were terrible defending the rush in 2023-24, though some of that may have possibly been system-related.
Still, Pesce will help the Devils’ rush defense, but that's not the only area where he should help. He also excels on puck retrievals, ranking in the 93rd percentile. And though he doesn't put up many points, he creates in-zone offense and will get shots off. Plus, he's great on zone entries and exits:
Admittedly, Marino excelled in a few of those areas. He's even a better puck-mover than Pesce, but there were areas he struggled in this season where Pesce should help.
For example, Marino struggled to clear the net in high-danger areas. And as JFresh pointed out in a tweet when the Pesce to New Jersey rumors first surfaced, Marino really struggled to protect passing lanes in the slot compared to Pesce, who was one of the most effective at shutting them down:
Pesce isn't a physical defenseman; he's totaled 62 hits combined over the last two seasons. But at 6-foot-3, 210 pounds, he appears more difficult to move in high-danger areas and does a good job protecting those areas, something that likely contributed to Devils goalies having a nightmare season in 2023-24.
Furthermore, Pesce played difficult minutes for the Hurricanes and handled them well. My best guess is the Devils have a similar plan for him, and if those results hold, that should bode well for next season at least.
Pesce Was the Hurricanes' Go-To Shutdown Defender
Is Jaccob Slavin the Hurricanes' best defensive defenseman? Yes. You won't find an argument about that from me, but it was actually Pesce who logged the most difficult minutes for the Hurricanes over the last three seasons.
The difference wasn't significant this past season; Pesce played 39.3 percent of his minutes against elite competition, while Slavin logged 37.3 percent of his ice time against top lines. I'm not sure how much stock I would put into this because the Hurricanes might be Corsi spammers, but Pesce did total a Corsi percentage of 57 percent against elite competition this season.
If you thought Pesce's ice time against elite competition was a one-off, think again. As was the case this past season, Pesce logged the most difficult minutes against elite competition among Hurricanes defensemen in 2022-23.
Like in 2023-24, the difference between Pesce and Slavin wasn't significant; Pesce logged 34.8 percent of his minutes against elite competition, while Slavin logged 30.2 percent of his time against elite competition.
During the 2021-22 season, Pesce played 39.2 percent of his minutes against top lines. Obviously, Hurricanes coach Rod Brind'Amour had plenty of trust in Pesce because quietly, he used Pesce in more difficult minutes than he did with Slavin.
I'm sure the Devils have a pretty good idea this is how the Hurricanes used Pesce, and the fact they swapped Marino out for him seems to suggest they have a similar plan for Pesce's usage. Marino was the Devils' go-to shutdown defender the last two seasons, and it's easy to see Pesce slotting right into that role.
That's also why I don't necessarily envision Luke Hughes pairing up with Pesce, at least to start the season. Hughes will one day get to the point where he'll be ready for difficult defensive minutes, but that's probably not the case right now. And Pesce will be getting that ice time with the Devils.
Since Hughes probably won't play with Pesce right away, I could see head coach Sheldon Keefe matching up Dillon with Pesce to form a shutdown pair. Dillon played nearly 71 percent of his minutes against opponents' top-nines this season, and he handled them pretty well, too.
Pairing Dillon and Pesce together seems like the most logical outcome, and it benefits the rest of the Devils' defense pairs. Jonas Siegenthaler could remain with Dougie Hamilton, who's he had plenty of success with over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Hughes could play a sheltered third-pair role with Šimon Nemec.
Though there is some risk in giving the soon-to-be 30-year-old Pesce a six-year contract, I'm a big fan of this signing for the Devils. It's not that Marino is a bad defenseman by any stretch, but Pesce addresses some flaws the team had defensively last season. Plus, he will become their top shutdown defender, allowing Hamilton, Hughes and probably Nemec to excel in easier offensive minutes. And the Devils should be better for that in 2024-25.
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Advanced stats from PuckIQ, microstats from JFresh Hockey/Corey Sznajder