Devils vs. Rangers Preview: Must-Win

After a disappointing effort against the Washington Capitals, the New Jersey Devils face a must-win game against the New York Rangers.

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Needless to say, this is a big one for the New Jersey Devils tonight. After a disappointing effort against the Washington Capitals two nights ago, they need a bounce-back performance against the New York Rangers. Here are some keys to securing two points against their Hudson River Rivals. 

Devils Should Have the Advantage at 5-on-5

The Rangers are riding an eight-game winning streak, but it's not like their play has been entirely stellar during this stretch, specifically at five-on-five. They have an expected goals share (xG%) of 46.3 percent across their last ten games, and it's because they've been leaky defensively, giving up 2.61 expected goals per 60 minutes. 

On the other end of things, the Devils have a 54.5 xG% across their last ten games. They're generating 3.46 expected goals per 60, the highest rate in the NHL across this stretch. But they are giving some of it back, allowing 2.88 expected goals per 60 minutes. 

Despite the troublesome defensive numbers, the Devils are a better five-on-five team. Even when you expand the data to include the whole season, the Devils are still a better team at that game state. I expect them to control play at five-on-five, but the key will obviously be goaltending. 

Nico Daws came back down to Earth in the Devils' 6-2 loss to the Capitals, though much of it wasn't his fault. Meanwhile, Igor Shesterkin is coming off one of his best starts this season in a 3-1 win over the Dallas Stars. 

The Devils have had trouble scoring consistently lately, so if Shesterkin is on his game, it could be another long night. The key is not to get frustrated, though. They did find ways to score on him last regular season and put three past him in their matchup earlier this season. The Rangers give up chances, so the Devils will get opportunities if they stay patient. 

Devils Need to Tighten Up Defensively