Devils vs. Red Wings Preview: 3 Keys to Victory
Here are 3 keys to the New Jersey Devils defeating the Red Wings in their 2023-24 season opener
Folks, we've made it. New Jersey Devils hockey is back. The team kicks off their 2023-24 regular season tonight at the Prudential Center against the Detroit Red Wings. Let's preview tonight's game and some keys to the Devils securing a win in their first game of the 2023-24 season.
Keeping the Hughes Line Away From Seider
One of the Red Wings' biggest question marks this season is their blue line. Their top pair of Jake Walman and Moritz Seider should be formidable, but there are defensive shortcomings with the rest of their units.
That's why Devils head coach Lindy Ruff needs to keep the line of Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes and Tyler Toffoli away from Seider's pair as often as possible. Seider did take a bit of a step back last season, but he played well alongside Walman, posting a 51.34 expected goals percentage (xG%) with him as his partner.
Other than them, Hughes and his linemates have the potential to take advantage of the Red Wings' two weaker defense pairs; Bratt and Hughes did post an xG% above 63 percent as a duo last season.
Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry seem to be beginning as the Red Wings' second defense pair, while Shayne Gostisbehere and Justin Holl will make up the bottom pair.
Chiarot has been a defensive liability for quite some time, while Petry doesn't have the same speed he had during his prime. Gostisbehere can move the puck, but he also struggles defensively. If Ruff can get the Hughes line out against either of these pairs, the Devils should control the game at five-on-five.
Heavy Dose of Marino vs. Larkin's Line
Ruff showed last season that he won't be afraid to hard-match John Marino against opponents' top lines. Based on how the Red Wings appear to be setting up tonight, expect plenty of Marino against Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin and David Perron.
Larkin is the Red Wings' best play driver and is coming off a 79-point season. Perron has long been an underrated top-six winger, but the real boon for Larkin's line was the addition of Alex DeBrincat this summer.
DeBrincat struggled in his one season in Ottawa, but he's playing for his hometown team now and is a good rebound candidate. He's eclipsed 40 goals a couple of times in his career, and having Larkin and Perron as his wingers seems like a good fit for him.
That's why Marino should get a heavy dose of this line. He faced the most minutes against elite competition of any Devils defensemen last season, and they're the Red Wings' biggest threat to score from their line combos.
This will also be a test for Kevin Bahl, who appears to be starting game one alongside Marino. He had a solid preseason and posted good numbers with Marino as his partner. It's the first time he'll be playing a bit higher up the lineup, so we'll see how he fares.
Vanecek Needs a Solid Start
Vitek Vanecek struggled a bit out of the gate last season, with a tough first appearance in a Devils uniform against these Red Wings. The good news is that he's coming off a solid preseason that saw him finish with a .920 save percentage while stopping 2.33 goals above expected.
And the other good news is that the Red Wings were one of the lowest-event offensive teams a season ago at five-on-five. They averaged just 49.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes, ranked 30th in the NHL, and 2.22 expected goals per 60, ranked 31st.
I expect the Red Wings to be better offensively after adding DeBrincat, Daniel Sprong and J.T. Compher, but it might not happen right away. It could be a good spot for Vanecek to play well, especially if Marino and co. can limit the Larkin line from creating havoc.
Projected Lineups
Devils
Timo Meier - Nico Hischier - Dawson Mercer
Bratt - Hughes - Toffoli
Ondrej Palát - Erik Haula - Alexander Holtz
Tomáš Nosek - Michael McLeod - Nathan Bastian
Jonas Siegenthaler - Dougie Hamilton
Bahl - Marino
Luke Hughes - Brendan Smith
Vanecek
Red Wings (via Max Bultman)
DeBrincat - Larkin - Perron
Robby Fabbri - Compher - Lucas Raymond
Michael Rasmussen - Andrew Copp - Sprong
Klim Kostin - Joe Veleno - Christian Fischer
Walman - Seider
Chiarot - Petry
Gostisbehere - Holl
Ville Husso
Tonight's game begins at 7:30 p.m. and can be seen on ESPN+ and Hulu.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick