Devils vs. Sabres Global Series Preview: It's Go Time
The New Jersey Devils begin their 2024-25 season vs. the Buffalo Sabres in Prague as part of the NHL's Global Series. Can they start hot?
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It's been a long time since meaningful New Jersey Devils hockey. But that changes tomorrow and Saturday when they take on the Buffalo Sabres in Prague as part of the NHL's Global Series to begin the regular season.
The Devils made plenty of changes this offseason and did not have much preseason time to give their full lineup needed reps, but they have to put that behind them and get off to a fast start. Let's set the table for the beginning of the 2024-25 season.
Ruff Revenge Games?
Every Devils fan knows that former head coach Lindy Ruff returned to Buffalo for his second stint as the Sabres' head coach. I'm sure there'll be extra incentive to win on both sides, but it helps that most Devils skaters should know how Ruff will want the Sabres to play.
There aren't many secrets to Ruff's system by now. They have a young skater group with a couple of mobile, puck-moving defensemen in Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin who should perform well in Ruff's rush-based system.
Because Power and Dahlin can move the puck, expect the Sabres to play with pace and attack off the rush, just as the Devils did under Ruff, especially at five-on-five. And for what it's worth, the Sabres were quite good at five-on-five this preseason.
The Sabres went 5-1 during the preseason and posted an expected goals share (xG%) of 57.44 percent while generating 3.1 expected goals per 60 and allowing 2.29 expected goals per 60. Of course, it's the preseason. And as we learned last season under Ruff, preseason results don't always translate.
Still, I expect the Sabres to create some problems for a Devils team that is a bit shorthanded defensively to start the season. Can a Brenden Dillon and Dougie Hamilton pairing handle some difficult minutes with Brett Pesce not available to play in Prague? If not, will Devils head coach Sheldon Keefe hand those minutes to Jonas Siegenthaler and Johnathan Kovacevic?
On the flip side, a Ruff system could lead to some defensive breakdowns and grade-A chances. Can the Devils take advantage of that? It wouldn't surprise me if we were in for a high-scoring weekend.
Can the Devils' Top 6 Produce?
Keefe will seemingly stick with the line combos he used during the preseason to begin the regular season. That means a first line of Timo Meier, Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt and a second line of Tomáš Tatar, Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer.
I'm pretty confident the Tatar, Hischier and Mercer line will work. They looked good in their final preseason tune-up against the Islanders last week, posting a 54.6 xG%. But I'm less certain that Meier, Hughes and Bratt will find a groove.
Meier, Hughes and Bratt only played one preseason game together, but the results were not good. They were leaky defensively and were well underwater in xG%. Their track record as a unit, dating back to when the Devils acquired Meier at the 2023 trade deadline, has been just so-so.
But if they mesh, they could cause matchup problems for the Sabres, who might be exploitable defensively. The Sabres might have some talent on defense, but each pair has a flaw.
For example, Dahlin's partner will likely be Henri Jokiharju, whose impacts have been in the red over the last three seasons. Power and Bowen Byram are paired together, but at least to this point of his career, Byram hasn't lived up to his draft pedigree. His impacts don't look much different than Jokiharju's over the last three seasons:
Even the Sabres' projected third pair of Mattias Samuelsson and Connor Clifton looks exploitable. Will Ruff make a difference for some of these young defensemen who have struggled defensively? Time will tell, but the Devils' top six may be in a favorable situation this weekend.
Markström & Allen May Have Their Work Cut Out for Them
Because the Sabres could cause the Devils some problems defensively, Jacob Markström and Jake Allen (assuming he starts Saturday) will probably need to be sharp in net.
Markström has been one of the best goalies at stopping high-danger chances over the last three seasons, totaling a high-danger save percentage of .837, a top-10 rate league-wide. The Sabres will likely get their fair share of high-danger chances, so Markström will have to show off his knack for saving those opportunities.
Allen did not look great in his final preseason tune-up against the New York Islanders a week ago, but I don't think I'd put too much stock into that. Hopefully, that was a flash in the pan and he'll look like he did for the Devils after last season's trade deadline.
Seamus Casey's NHL Debut
I don't think most of us expected Seamus Casey to begin the season in the NHL. But at least for the Global Series, he will play on a pair alongside Šimon Nemec. Casey had a fantastic preseason and earned the spot, but the regular season comes with new challenges.
We mentioned how the Sabres will want to play with pace, but that's where Casey's strengths could come into play. He has great hockey sense, is excellent with the puck on his stick, and shows tremendous patience in his decision-making.
Casey and Nemec aren't likely to log difficult defensive minutes, so I expect Keefe to use these two to help the Devils create offense from the back end. Hopefully, that can help counter the Sabres' rush attack.
Quick Hits
Ondřej Palát, Erik Haula and Stefan Noesen will essentially be a shutdown line for Keefe since all three forwards have excellent defensive impacts. I'd expect Keefe to get them out against the JJ Peterka, Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch unit as often as possible if the Hischier line isn't matched against them.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was the Sabres' best goalie by far last season, posting a .910 SV% in 54 games. The talent is there, but I'm curious if he can repeat that effort this season, especially since I've long believed that a Ruff system tends to hurt goalies. Perhaps there's an opportunity for the Devils to take advantage if that's the case.
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