Devils Shouldn't Seriously Pursue Gibson Trade

The New Jersey Devils were connected to John Gibson earlier this week, but they'd be wise to stay away and not seriously pursue the 30-year-old netminder.

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The New Jersey Devils and goalie rumors have become a consistent trend over the last few months. It was Connor Hellebuyck during the offseason and, to a lesser extent, John Gibson. Now, it appears interest in Gibson has picked up again.

On Wednesday, Dec. 13, James Nichols of New Jersey Hockey Now reported that the Devils have re-engaged on Gibson. Less than an hour later, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period speculated that the Devils could be a return suspect if the Anaheim Ducks decide to trade Gibson. 

Gibson has been better this season, but there's still plenty of risk in acquiring him if you're Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald. Let's look at why the Devils shouldn't seriously pursue him. 

Gibson's Last Few Seasons

Would I call the 2023-24 season a return to form for Gibson? Not quite, but he has been better. The 30-year-old netminder has a .906 save percentage through 19 games and 18 starts and has saved 2.6 goals above expected. 

That's not prime Gibson by any stretch, but it's better than what he had posted in the previous few seasons. The Ducks' defense has improved some, too. However, the bar was low to clear compared to previous defenses under former head coach Dallas Eakins. 

The Ducks are giving up 2.70 expected goals and 12.35 high-danger chances per 60 minutes this season. Those are still not great numbers, but it's a stark improvement from the 3.5 xGA/60 and 16.24 HDCA/60 they gave up a season ago, historically bad defensive numbers in the analytics era. 

It seems fair that while the Ducks' defense is still not great, the noticeable improvement under new coach Greg Cronin has probably helped Gibson, too. Still, it's hard to ignore what his previous four seasons looked like.

From the start of the 2019-20 season until the end of 2022-23, Gibson had given up 51.2 goals above expected. Granted, those were all four seasons under Eakins as head coach, but it's hard to ignore the results. By GSAx, Gibson was one of the worst goalies in the league. 

I don't think it all comes down to the Ducks' poor defensive numbers, either. For example, Anthony Stolarz stopped what was expected of him during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign and gave up just one more goal than expected in 2021-22. 

The same was also true last season. Stolarz had a goals saved above expected of 0.4 in 19 games, and Lukas Dostal got into the picture, too. The young goaltender, one of the better netminding prospects in the game, had a goals saved above expected of -0.3 in 19 games. For context's sake, Gibson was at -11.5 last season. 

While there probably is some truth to the Ducks' defense affecting Gibson, some of his partners fared well enough over the last four seasons. The start of his 2023-24 campaign is a bit encouraging, but it's still a small sample size of 19 games. 

For now, you have to put more weight into what he's done over the previous four seasons than what he's done in not even 20 games to start 2023-24. Those numbers are far from stellar, and given his contract, that only adds to the risk of acquiring Gibson. 

Devils Have No Margin for Error Because of Gibson's Contract

If the Devils are serious about acquiring Gibson, they have to be sure that he needs a change of scenery. Because if they're wrong, his contract — which runs through the 2026-27 season at a cap hit of $6.4 million — could minimize their Cup window. 

In Pagnotta's article, he mentioned the Ducks won't give Gibson away for a bag of pucks. It will take a significant return to pry him away from Anaheim, and that could have long-term ramifications if the Devils have to give away some of their best assets. 

A prospect like Šimon Nemec is off the table. The Devils will not trade him for a goalie or perhaps anyone. But that means someone like Seamus Casey, who's been one of the best defensemen in the NCAA this season, would probably have to be part of a package for Gibson. 

Of course, there'd also be a first-round pick going the other way. There'd probably be some protections and conditions attached to it. But either way, a first-round pick is a first-round pick. It wouldn't be a surprise if Vitek Vanecek is part of the package since the Ducks would need a goalie, and the Devils would need to clear cap space. 

That may seem like a lot, but if it takes a significant package to acquire Gibson, it will be something along those lines. That's especially true if the Ducks retain on his contract, though I think that's unlikely, given the term left. 

That's a lot to give up for a goalie who hasn't been elite in quite some time. Sure, he's been better this season, but just because he's been better and would be an improvement over what the Devils have doesn't mean they should pull the trigger. 

Plus, Gibson is now on the wrong side of 30, and injuries are becoming a concern with him. As I said this summer, when rumors about the Devils potentially targeting Gibson emerged, they shouldn't pursue him in a trade, and I stand by it now. 

Devils Should Pursue Other Options

There's no arguing the Devils need an upgrade in net. Vanecek has played better lately, with two quality starts in a row. So perhaps the need isn't as urgent as it was a couple of weeks ago, especially with Akira Schmid playing better, too. 

But if the Devils and Fitzgerald are intent on adding a goalie this season, they'd be better off pursuing other netminders. None of the potential options have the name recognition as Gibson, but Kaapo Kähkönen or Jake Allen could make more sense. 

Kähkönen's .894 SV% is nothing to write home about, but he has saved 2.4 goals above expected behind a bad Sharks defense. Jake Allen has a .901 SV% and has stopped 1.2 goals above expected. They've both been league-average and would be good complements to Vanecek. Even Kevin Lankinen makes sense if the Predators decide to move him to open a spot for top prospect Yaroslav Askarov. 

Acquiring one of those goalies would also allow Schmid to get time with the Utica Comets alongside Nico Daws, who recently returned from hip surgery. The Devils' goaltending depth would be in good hands with Vanecek, Allen or Kähkönen, plus Schmid and Daws in the AHL. 

There's just too much risk in a Gibson trade for a goalie who probably won't return to his previous levels from four or five years ago. He's now on the wrong side of 30, has an expensive contract, and has mounting injury concerns. The Devils would be best off looking for netminding help elsewhere. 

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