Why the Devils Shouldn't Rush a Hamilton Trade

There will come a time when the New Jersey Devils need to trade Dougie Hamilton, but doing it this offseason would be a mistake.

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While we've yet to get any rumors linking the New Jersey Devils to players who may be available this offseason, those will come. At least for now, Ondřej Palát, Dawson Mercer and Erik Haula have popped up on various trade boards, but that's not a surprise since the Devils need to shed salary to improve their roster.

One player who hasn't shown up on a trade board is Dougie Hamilton. It's not that I expect him to, but he has been a semi-popular trade candidate among fans on social media. There will come a time when the Devils will have to move his contract, but doing it this offseason would be a mistake.

Hamilton Is Still a High-End Offensive Defenseman

Hamilton did not have the best season, but you could say that about plenty of Devils. Even then, he was still good, especially at what you expect him to excel at.

Hamilton finished with nine goals and 40 points in 64 games, a 12-goal, 51-point pace over 82 games. He had a bit of poor shooting luck, as his 4.8 shooting percentage was a touch below his career average of 6.3 percent.

Those numbers are all a bit below what you'd expect from Hamilton offensively, but scoring goals, specifically at five-on-five, was a chore for the Devils this season. Even though that was the case, most of his underlying metrics were solid.

Hamilton finished with an expected goals share (xG%) of 52.22 percent, with his offense carrying the way. The Devils averaged 2.92 expected goals per 60 when he was on the ice. Only Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier generated more expected goals per 60 in their five-on-five minutes.

There's no doubt that Hamilton's defensive game fell off this season. He was never an elite shutdown defender, but his defensive impacts were even a bit worse than what we're used to seeing from him.

However, being an elite defender is not what you'd expect from Hamilton. You want him to create offense, especially for a blue line that doesn't have much offensive ability outside of Luke Hughes, and Hamilton did that. Overall, his offensive impacts were excellent, both at even strength and on the power play:

You can argue Hamilton is not worth his $9 million cap hit, and you'd be correct. But even though that's the case, he's still a vital part of the Devils.

Hamilton drives plenty of offense, and I'd expect that to be the case next season, especially with an improved roster. Sheldon Keefe isn't going to play him in difficult defensive minutes, so he'll be in a position to succeed, even if he ends up as the PP2 QB.

A Dougie-Less Blue Line Looks Problematic

It may be enticing to take Hamilton and his contract out of the equation, but I see more problems than solutions. Let's say the Devils trade Hamilton, what would their blue line look like going into 2025-26?

• Jonas Siegenthaler - Johnathan Kovacevic*

• Luke Hughes - Brett Pesce

• Brenden Dillon - Šimon Nemec

I don't know about you, but that's not a particularly inspiring group of defensemen. Oh, and the asterisk by Kovacevic? He won't be ready for training camp after undergoing knee surgery, meaning he could begin the season on IR/LTIR.

Assuming the Devils don't trade Seamus Casey this offseason, he would likely begin 2025-26 in the NHL with Kovacevic out and Hamilton playing elsewhere. There's potential, but Nemec and Casey make it an extremely boom-or-bust blue line, and that's not a position I imagine the Devils want to be in.

If the Devils do trade Hamilton and his $9 million cap hit, general manager Tom Fitzgerald better replace him. The problem is, there's not much out there in free agency. You can forget Aaron Ekblad being a good idea, and though Dante Fabbro would be an intriguing option, he's not Hamilton.

Trade-wise, Erik Karlsson appears to be out there, but why trade Hamilton and replace him with Karlsson? That makes no sense.

While I like Casey and Nemec’s potential, it'd be unfair to ask them this early into their careers to provide the offensive ability that Hamilton still can. And it'd be a lot to put on Luke Hughes' plate, too.

That's why it makes the most sense to trade Palát, Haula and even Mercer to free up cap space to make additions. I know it's intriguing to move Hamilton's $9 million cap hit, along with Palát, because it'd give the Devils the most financial flexibility to improve their roster. But it comes at the expense of an already low-key, immobile blue line.

If you don't believe me, look at the Devils' microstats from this season. They ranked 27th and 30th in possession exits and possession exit percentage, and that was with Hamilton healthy for 64 games:

Remove Hamilton from the equation, and that's probably not improving. That's why keeping him for the 2025-26 season, at a minimum, is important.

It’s Not Hamilton’s Time to Go Yet

There will come a time when the Devils need to clear Hamilton's contract, but we're not there yet. Perhaps it's obvious, but if Quinn Hughes becomes a realistic option, that's when you can expect the Devils to trade Hamilton.

For now, he's too important a player for a Devils blue line that has a questionable build. They don't have enough offensive ability on the back end with him, and removing him would only make that worse.

It may be enticing to shed his $9 million cap hit. But the Devils fortunately have other ways to move the necessary money, and I don't anticipate them having trouble doing so.

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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick

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