Devils Should Stay Far Away From Saros Trade
Juuse Saros is an undeniable talent, but he's far from the best fit for the New Jersey Devils for multiple reasons.
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We've already talked about Jacob Markström and Linus Ullmark on this blog, so let's wrap up the big-name goalies by getting to Juuse Saros. Nashville Predators general manager Barry Trotz may not want to trade Saros, but he did appear at No. 6 on Frank Seravalli's first trade board of the offseason.
There's no doubt Saros would be a massive upgrade for the Devils. That's not difficult, but even though that's the case, Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald would probably be best off staying away from acquiring Saros. And very far away. Let's look at why that's the case.
Saros Is an Undeniable Talent
There are few elite goaltenders in the game today. You can likely count them on one hand, too. Connor Hellebuyck, Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, and Saros. You can throw in Jeremy Swayman, Thatcher Demko, Ullmark and Markström in a tier below them as well.
It's hard to get consistently great goaltending, but Saros has generally been that throughout his career. From 2021-23, Saros posted a .920 save percentage across 167 games. He's also a workhorse, as he's played 60-plus games in each of the last three seasons.
Saros had one of the best seasons by any goalie during the analytics era (2007-present) in 2022-23, saving an outstanding 46.7 goals above expected. The Predators missed the playoffs, but not by much, and they wouldn't have been close if it hadn't been for Saros.
There's no doubt he's an elite goaltender, but Saros did not have the best 2023-24 season, at least by his standards. He finished with a .906 SV% and gave up 3.0 goals above expected. In today's NHL, that's an average goaltender. That would have likely gotten the Devils into the playoffs this season, but that's not what you expect from Saros.
Still, you can't argue that Saros wouldn't be an upgrade for the Devils. Don't count on him to save nearly 50 goals above expected in a season again. A goalie does that once or twice a career if they're lucky, but he'd still easily be the Devils' best goalie since prime Cory Schneider.
On talent alone, Saros would make sense for the Devils. But plenty of other factors are working against this trade making sense for the team. And it all has to do with what it'll cost to acquire Saros and, most importantly, re-sign him.
Saros Too Expensive to Acquire and Re-Sign
I don't think it's a secret that Saros will cost the most in a trade from the goalies who are available this summer. The Devils would almost certainly have to give up the 10th overall pick, something they probably won't have to do with Markström and certainly not Ullmark.
It will also take more than the 10th overall pick to acquire Saros. Much more. Dawson Mercer would likely be going to Nashville, something the Devils reportedly rejected ahead of the trade deadline in March. Fitzgerald would probably also have to include a prospect (likely Seamus Casey) and maybe another lower draft pick.
That's a high price for a goaltender, even for someone like Saros. The trade cost may be expensive, but that's not where my concerns lie. Instead, it's what it'd take to re-sign Saros, who's entering the final year of his contract at a cap hit of $5 million.
You can bet that Saros' next cap hit will be significantly bigger than $5 million, perhaps close to double what it is now. On 102.5 radio in Nashville, Elliotte Friedman reported that Saros and his camp may be waiting to see what Shesterkin's next contract may look like:
For those who missed the news earlier this week, there are rumors that Shesterkin is looking for a new contract that has a cap hit of $12 million. The New York Rangers need to build a team, so it's unlikely he gets 12. But Shesterkin has all the leverage here, so he's almost certainly getting an 8-figure cap hit on a contract extension.
If Saros is waiting for that before engaging in talks for a new deal, we have a problem. At the surface level, you might not think Saros is as good as Shesterkin, but their numbers over the last three seasons are nearly identical:
Saros from 2022-24:
.915 SV% across 195 games played, 67.4 goals saved above expected
Shesterkin from 2022-24:
.921 SV% across 166 games played, 74.3 goals saved above expected
Shesterkin is a slightly better goaltender, but those numbers are pretty close to each other. Will Saros get paid more on his next deal than Shesterkin? That seems highly unlikely, but if he's waiting for Shesterkin to set the market, he will have a strong case for a big pay raise based on his performance over the last three seasons.
Let's say Shesterkin gets something like $10.5 to $11 million annually on his next deal. Saros can probably argue very well that he should earn north of $9 million on his next contract. Should the Devils be looking to pay a goalie that much? I would argue absolutely not.
Let's look at goalies who have made the Stanley Cup over the last two years. They are Andrei Vasilevskiy, Darcy Kuemper, Sergei Bobrovsky, Adin Hill, and Stuart Skinner. Bobrovsky may be a Vezina nominee this year, but how many of those goalies can you argue are elite? Just Vasilevskiy, but that's probably it.
That's why Saros should be a no-go for the Devils. It really has nothing to do with his talent. It's more about acquisition cost and even more so about paying him on his next deal. Sure, the cap will probably rise quite a bit over the next few years, but I still would not pay a goalie nearly $9.5 million a year.
Saros has also already racked up plenty of mileage, and he's a 5-foot-11 netminder who heavily relies on his athleticism. Goalies tend to age better than skaters, but there's still risk betting that much money on a smaller goalie who relies on athleticism and has already racked up some mileage.
That's why Markström and Ullmark are the best options for the Devils. Markström is 34, but it's only a two-year commitment at a cap hit of $6 million. By the time his contract expires, the hope is that someone from Akira Schmid, Nico Daws, Jakub Málek and Isaac Poulter is ready to take the reins.
The Devils would have to re-sign Ullmark if they acquire him. But 1) He will not cost anywhere as much as Saros in a trade, and 2) His next contract will probably come in somewhere around $6.5 to $7 million a year.
It's a no-brainer for the Devils, in my opinion. Ullmark and Markström should be their top two targets. And they should stay very far away from a Saros trade because it's just too costly to acquire and re-sign him.
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why is nobody talking about Kapo Kahkonen? He has been over 900 in all but 2 seasons and that was on a very bad sharks team. Why give up all those assets when you have a perfectly good goalie as a free agent?