Devils' 4-2 Loss to Capitals: Déjà Vu
For the second time this season, the New Jersey Devils fell behind 3-0 to the Capitals but came up just short of a comeback.
The Washington Capitals seem to be the New Jersey Devils' boogeyman once again. After losing 6-4 to them in their first matchup on Oct. 25, they fell 4-2 last night to fall to 7-5-1 on the season. Here are three takeaways from the loss as the team regroups with three days off before traveling to Winnipeg to take on the Jets on Tuesday, Nov. 14.
Vanecek Is a Problem
The Devils' goaltending was a question mark heading into the season, and it appears those concerns were justified. Vitek Vanecek entered 2023-24 as the team's 1A netminder, but he hasn't done much to back up that position.
Last night was arguably Vanecek's worst start of the season, as he gave up two goals on five shots and was immediately pulled in favor of Akira Schmid after giving up the second goal. In just 10:37 of work, Vanecek gave up two goals on 0.24 expected goals.
He should have stopped at least one of the goals, but I think there's a reasonable argument he should have saved both, as the numbers suggest. Devils coach Lindy Ruff said in his post-game press conference he didn't think Vanecek had it, so why wait to make the change?
It was certainly a justifiable move, but now the Devils need to reassess their goaltending plan. They want Schmid to be the guy in Utica with the Comets, but it's clear he's the team's best netminder. He was fantastic in relief of Vanecek, making 18 saves on 19 shots while stopping 0.82 goals above expected.
Vanecek now has an .887 SV% and has given up 5.04 goals above expected this season. Schmid is at an .896 SV%, but his numbers are improving after quality outings in his last two appearances.
Perhaps the most notable difference in the two goaltenders' numbers is that Schmid has a high-danger SV% of .848, which is quite good. Meanwhile, Vanecek's high-danger SV% is just .712, the opposite of quite good.
Schmid seems to be making saves he's supposed to make now, and if he maintains his high-danger numbers, he's the Devils' 1A netminder. That doesn't mean general manager Tom Fitzgerald shouldn't look to acquire a goalie; he absolutely should. But Schmid is the Devils' best option over Vanecek, and it's not hard to see.
Devils' Misuse of Holtz
In a game where the Devils were trailing 3-0, one would have thought Alex Holtz would have gotten more ice time. But in perhaps the least surprising news, Ruff chose to sit Holtz for nearly the entire third period in favor of Curtis Lazar, Tomáš Nosek and Nathan Bastian.
It's not that Bastian, Nosek and Lazar are bad players. Lazar has actually played quite well this season, but when your team is chasing the game after a 3-0 deficit, they would not be my first, second and third options for extra ice time to tie it up.
It's not like Holtz played poorly, either. There was a moment early in the third period where Holtz set up Dougie Hamilton with a great pass from behind the net on the power play, but Hamilton shot the puck wide. For whatever reason, Holtz did not play from there on out.
I don't have an explanation for Ruff's usage of Holtz, but he has not once put Holtz in a position to succeed this season. He has been continuously stapled to the fourth line with Chris Tierney, who has struggled quite a bit this season.
Holtz's numbers with Tierney have been downright awful, too. With him as his linemate, Holtz has an expected goals percentage (xG%) of 22.14 percent. Without Tierney, that number skyrockets to 48.86 percent.
Ruff has to get Holtz away from Tierney and put him in a better position to succeed. The Devils are not leveraging his best assets on the fourth line and are ruining his development in that role. This is not what they drafted him to be.
Mercer's Best of 2023-24
Moving on to something more positive, though the Devils did lose the game, I thought Dawson Mercer had his best outing to date. Even if he hadn't scored to make the game 3-2, there was plenty to like about his performance.
The Devils controlled the game at five-on-five, specifically from about the halfway mark of the game onward. A big reason for that was Mercer, who led the team in xG% at five-on-five at 93.39 percent.
Mercer was much more involved offensively, finishing with five shots on goal. He was going to high-danger areas and getting chances, but Charlie Lindgren played well and did his best to keep him off the board until the third period.
Mercer finished the game with five scoring chances and four high-danger chances. His strong play led Ruff to promote him to a line with Jesper Bratt and Tyler Toffoli, where he would conclude the game. That trio played quite well, so assuming Nico Hischier remains out Tuesday, expect them to stick together.
Regardless of linemates, that was a performance to build on from Mercer. Even when Jack Hughes and Hischier return, the Devils will need Mercer's depth scoring in the top-nine.
Quick Hits
I really like what I'm seeing from Timo Meier over the last few games. He was again one of the Devils' most involved players, finishing with a goal, six shots on goal, five scoring chances and three high-danger chances. He looks more like the Timo Meier the Devils were hoping to get when they acquired him from the San Jose Sharks last season.
Ondrej Palát has been a difficult player to assess this season. You watch him play and think he does not look good. But then you pull up his numbers and are like, "oh, this is pretty good." To be clear, he did not play well last night. But there's also been some bad luck in his game this season. Ideally, he'd be in a third-line role instead of the top-six. I think the Devils would get more out of him if he were on the third line than playing him on one of the top two lines like they are now.
The Devils are off until Tuesday. I haven't decided if I'll be writing tomorrow, but if not, I'll be back on Monday with Devils News Rewind.
Game Score Chart (via Hockey Stat Cards)
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick