Devils Need to Jump-Start Toffoli

Tyler Toffoli got off to a hot start with the New Jersey Devils but has cooled off considerably since then. How can they get him going again?

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The New Jersey Devils' most notable acquisition this summer was trading for Tyler Toffoli from the Calgary Flames in exchange for Yegor Sharangovich and a draft pick. While he got off to a hot start with the Devils, he's cooled off over the last month. What's behind the dropoff? And how can the Devils get him going with all the injuries they're dealing with?

Toffoli’s Decline By the Numbers

It's not hard to understand why the Devils acquired Toffoli. He finished last season with 34 goals and 73 points in 82 games, career-highs across the board. That did scream regression, but at first, it didn't look like he would regress with the Devils. 

Toffoli was producing at a point-per-game pace in his first 21 games and had 12 goals, putting him on pace for 47. Given his career averages, expecting him to finish with 47 tallies wasn't fair. But it sure looked like he was due for another big season. 

However, Toffoli has come down to Earth over his last 20 games, with just four goals and eight points. That's a noticeable dip in his counting totals, but what about his advanced stats? Has he regressed in that regard, too?

Toffoli was one of the Devils' best five-on-five players to start the season, totaling a 57.1 expected goals share (xG%). Individually, he was the team's highest volume shooter, with 53 shots on goal at five-on-five. Only Jack Hughes had generated more scoring chances than Toffoli, and he ranked fourth in high-danger chances. 

How does that compare to his next 20 games, where he's cooled off? Individually, the shot volume has dropped off at five-on-five, as he has 28 shots on goal in his last 20 games. After generating 19 high-danger chances in his first 21 games, he has just five in his previous 20.