Devils Trade Target: Buchnevich Would Remove Some Vanilla

If New Jersey Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald wants less vanilla up front, Pavel Buchnevich may be an ideal target. But is a trade realistic?

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In an interview with Pierre LeBrun, New Jersey Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald said he thinks his forward group is a bit too vanilla. To me, vanilla means boring. But if I had to guess, that means Fitzgerald is looking for something different up front.

One way to change that is by adding some hard skill in the bottom six, but you can do so in the top six, too. The most obvious candidate to add a different element to the forward group is Pavel Buchnevich, who sits at No. 12 on Frank Seravalli's most recent trade board for Daily Faceoff.

Buchnevich is an ideal fit for the Devils, but is there a realistic path to acquiring him this offseason? Let's look at what he'd add to the Devils and what a trade may cost.

Buchnevich Is a High-End Top-6 Winger

Buchnevich has been one of the most productive top-six wingers in the league over the last three seasons, totaling 206 points across 216 games, a pace of 78 points per 82 games. More importantly, goal-scoring is one of his best assets, as he's averaged 32 goals per 82 games over that three-year stretch.

The St. Louis Blues have not been a great five-on-five team over the last three seasons, so Buchnevich's on-ice metrics don't look great. But that's likely just the product of being a poor five-on-five team because other stats show how solid a player he is.

Over the last three seasons, Buchnevich's play has been worth a total goals above replacement of 44.4. That ranks 28th league-wide for forwards and places him just ahead of Brayden Point, Nico Hischier and Artemi Panarin. That's not to say he's better than any of those players, but he's an incredibly valuable forward.

Shooting 21.4 percent in 2022-23 will inflate Buchnevich's GAR some, but even his expected GAR numbers look excellent. Over the last three seasons, his play has been worth a total xGAR of 53.9. That ranks 21st league-wide for forwards and places him ahead of Mikko Rantanen, Sidney Crosby, Jack Hughes and Nikita Kucherov.

I'd say that's some pretty good company, and his GAR/xGAR player card from Evolving Hockey better visualizes how good he's been:

I think you get the point. Buchnevich is a really good player. Not only does he provide plenty of value offensively, but as the chart above shows, he's also an excellent two-way winger.

The Blues did use Buchnevich as a center at times this season. While I could see that in certain situations (namely injuries) with the Devils, chances are they'd be acquiring him to play alongside one of Jack Hughes or Hischier. There is an obvious fit for him on the left wing in the top six, but can the Devils make it work?