Devils Trending Toward Being Great 5-on-5 Team
There's been some misconception about the New Jersey Devils' 5-on-5 play to start 2023-24. They aren't just power-play merchants. Here's why that's the case.
The New Jersey Devils are off to a solid start this season, with a 7-4-1 record through 12 games. Still, there seems to be some misconception about this team and that they're just "power-play merchants."
While there is some truth to that — their power play is converting on 41.7 percent of its chances — this is not a bad five-on-five team. This doesn't have to do with just Paul Bissonette's comments after the Devils' 6-3 loss to the Colorado Avalanche, either.
Some fans and pundits alike seem to think the Devils have not played that well at five-on-five, but that's not the case. Let's look at the team's five-on-five numbers as we approach the one-month mark of the 2023-24 season.
Devils 5-on-5 Play Through 12 Games
The Devils did get off to a slow start at five-on-five over their first few games of the season. There's no denying that. They didn't dominate the Detroit Red Wings in their 4-3 win in their regular-season opener and struggled at that game state against the Arizona Coyotes the following night.
Slow starts to games were part of the reason for that, but even then, they weren't tilting the ice as we became accustomed to from them a season ago. It really wasn't until the Devils game against the Montreal Canadiens on Oct. 24 that they showed they could be a dominant five-on-five team.
In that contest, a 5-2 win for the Devils, they controlled 66.57 percent of the expected goals and looked closer to the team that they were in 2022-23. As it turns out, that was a sign of things to come.
Since that matchup, the Devils have been one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL. Their 56.08 expected goals percentage (xG%) ranks fifth in the league, just behind the Pittsburgh Penguins. For the season, the Devils' xG% now sits at 54.06 percent, the ninth-best number in the league.
The numbers are encouraging, so let's break down their defense and offense separately.
Devils 5-on-5 Defense Has Been Solid
I think the biggest thing fans want to know about the Devils is their five-on-five defense. They gave up 13 odd-man rushes to the Avalanche, and people naturally tend to remember the most recent outcomes in sports. They did not play well defensively that game, but they're not a bad defensive team by any stretch.
The Devils are giving up an average of 2.49 expected goals per 60 minutes, the 10th-best rate in the NHL. They were the best team in the league in preventing high-danger chances per 60 minutes a season ago. That hasn't been the case through the first month of play, but they still rank 11th through 12 games.
The regression isn’t surprising, either. After losing Ryan Graves to the Pittsburgh Penguins in free agency and trading Damon Severson to the Columbus Blue Jackets, there was always going to be some defensive regression to start 2023-24.
That's especially true when considering that Graves and Severson's replacements are Kevin Bahl and Luke Hughes, two talented but inexperienced defensemen. Growing pains were the expectation with the Devils' defense, and the loss to the Avalanche was a perfect example of that.
Bahl and Hughes both had rough games, and that's OK. Hughes is a 20-year-old rookie, while Bahl is only 23 and has barely played 82 career games. The Avalanche now lead the NHL in xG% at five-on-five and are likely Stanley Cup contenders in the Western Conference, so it's not surprising they struggled.
But if you believe in their upside, especially Hughes, they should get better as the season progresses. And even with them going through some growing pains to start this season, the Devils still have an above-average, borderline top-10 defense at five-on-five. There's room to improve, but they're not a bad defensive team.
Makings of Great Devils Offense Are There
Now for the Devils' offense. They have relied on their power play to score goals this season, but that doesn't mean they haven't generated chances at five-on-five.
The Devils have averaged 2.93 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the sixth-best rate in the NHL. They're also averaging 13.73 high-danger chances per 60, the fourth-best rate, so they've been generating their fair share of quality opportunities.
The reason the Devils haven't scored much at five-on-five is that they have one of the lowest shooting percentages in the league at that game state; their 6.46 shooting percentage at five-on-five is the sixth-lowest in the NHL.
With the quality chances the Devils are generating, one would have to assume they will start scoring more at five-on-five at some point. And that shows in some players' individual stats.
Jack Hughes is shooting 5.26 percent at five-on-five. Timo Meier is shooting 4.17 percent, while Jesper Bratt is at 6.67 percent. Ondrej Palat hasn't scored a goal this season but has generated 1.82 expected goals at five-on-five. He's also due for a goal or two.
Dawson Mercer has struggled this season, but he's underperforming his expected numbers at five-on-five, with no goals on 1.7 expected goals. The power play is due to regress, but some of the Devils' best players are due for positive shooting regression at five-on-five.
Of course, missing Hughes and Nico Hischier due to injuries may limit some of the five-on-five chances the Devils generate until they return to the lineup. But the five-on-five offense has looked good to start this season. It may not be at 2022-23 levels, but you can see the potential underneath the surface.
Devils 5-on-5 Play Already Solid & Can Better
The Devils were indeed a better five-on-five team to start 2022-23. But they haven't been a bad or even average five-on-five team to start this season.
Their defense has been above average, and there are the makings of a great offense. The quality chances have been there and suggest they should have better shooting luck at some point.
So, while it may not resemble 2022-23 yet, there's no reason to believe the Devils can't be one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL by season's end. Because their underlying numbers at that game state suggest they're trending in that direction.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick