4 UFAs Devils Should Avoid During 2024 Offseason
The New Jersey Devils should avoid these four unrestricted free agents when the market opens on July 1, 2024.
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Not only is the NHL Draft less than a month away, but we're also now less than a month away from free agency. The 2024 free-agent class looks like a strong one, but there are always players teams should avoid.
We already looked at Chandler Stephenson and why the New Jersey Devils should probably stay away from him. Let's look at four other UFAs that Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald should steer clear of.
Brady Skjei
The Devils' biggest need on defense is finding a left-handed shot with some puck-moving ability. Brady Skjei finished with 13 goals and 47 points this season while averaging just over 21 minutes of ice time per game. He'd fit the puck-moving left-handed defender need pretty well. Unfortunately, a contract for him doesn't make much sense for the Devils.
AFP Analytics has Skjei projected for a five-year contract at a cap hit of just over $7.465 million, while Evolving Hockey has him projected for a seven-year deal at a cap hit of $7.498 million. Unless the Devils move serious money, there's no way they can afford Skjei and accomplish what they need to this offseason.
If the Devils acquire a left-handed defenseman in free agency, it'll have to be a cheaper option like Erik Gustafsson. Otherwise, the best choice will be to hit the trade market and see what's available there.
Nikita Zadorov
Was the Vancouver Canucks' playoff run a coming-out party of sorts for Nikita Zadorov? Perhaps, but he's been him for a while. He's always been a very good defensive defenseman, but he's also a highly underrated puck mover, even though he doesn't put up many points.
Not only does Zadorov defend the rush very well, but he excels in transition and can move the puck out of the defensive zone cleanly with puck possession. He skates pretty well for someone who's 6-foot-6, 240 pounds. And by all accounts, he seems like a great teammate.
I love everything about Zadorov's game, but his contract projections are a little unreasonable for the type of defenseman he is. AFP Analytics has him landing a five-year deal at a cap hit of $5.298 million, while Evolving Hockey has him earning a three-year contract at a cap hit of $4.001 million.
Honestly, that Evolving Hockey projection is pretty reasonable. I'd sign him for that, which means the Devils would probably have to move Jonas Siegenthaler to shed some salary. But I'd be pretty surprised if Zadorov ended up signing a contract that barely pays him $4 million annually, especially after his playoff run with the Canucks.
My guess is that Zadorov's next deal will be closer to AFP's projection, and it wouldn't surprise me if it were even a little more expensive. If that's the case, the Devils should stay away because that seems like a contract that will age poorly, especially given Zadorov's physical style of play.
Tyler Toffoli
The Devils' trade for Tyler Toffoli last offseason didn't work out as intended, but that was no fault of his. The team may have underperformed, but he was their best goal-scorer before they traded him to the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline.
Toffoli finished with 33 goals and 55 points in 82 games, the second consecutive season he's finished with 30-plus goals. The Devils reportedly tried to negotiate an extension with Toffoli before trading him, but it didn't work out. That may have been for the best, too.
AFP Analytics has Toffoli projected for a four-year deal at a cap hit of $6.022 million, while Evolving Hockey has his most likely contract coming in at three years at a cap hit of $6.113 million. Honestly, three years isn't the worst for Toffoli, but I'd still be hesitant about giving him just over $6 million annually if I were the Devils.
It's not that Toffoli is a bad player by any stretch. You can even argue the Devils need another scorer like him in their top six. The problem is he's not the fleetest of foot, and the Devils need to get faster this offseason, among other things. That's why signing someone like Anthony Duclair in free agency would probably be a better option.
As great of a player as Toffoli is, a reunion doesn't seem like the best option for the Devils, even though he was everything they could have asked for in the few months he was with the team.
Dakota Joshua
I've seen more than a few fans mention Dakota Joshua as a potential target for the Devils in free agency, and I understand why. He's a physical player who produced at a 23-goal pace this season. He seems like the ideal bottom-six target for the team, but there are some red flags in his game and whether what he did this past season is sustainable.
For starters, he shot 21.4 percent. Joshua is a 16.9 percent shooter for his career, so he might be a plus finisher. But even then, a 21.4 shooting percentage is an unsustainable number.
Furthermore, Joshua's microstats suggest that what he did this past season is probably more a fluke than anything else. He ranked in the 90th percentile in goals but the 15th percentile in shots, seventh percentile in rush shots, and 10th percentile in shots off high-danger passes:
Joshua's contract projections aren't terrible; AFP has him at four years at a cap hit of $3.252 million, while Evolving Hockey has his most likely deal at two years and a cap hit of $2.049 million.
Still, I would pass on him if I were the Devils. They do need some more hard skill in the bottom six, but the good news is this free-agent class has more than a few players who could fill that need, and probably for less money.
Yakov Trenin, William Carrier and Jordan Martinook would all be better options because they have resumés that suggest their results are sustainable. And they should be cheaper than Joshua.
Avoid Handing Out the Poisonous UFA Deal
Obviously, there are players like Sam Reinhart and Steven Stamkos that the Devils should avoid in free agency due to the prices they'll command. But I feel like the odds are they won't target either player, so it's probably not worth going into detail about them.
What the Devils do in free agency remains to be seen. I expect a bottom-six addition or two, but will there be more? Whatever the case is, avoiding poisonous contracts will be key to having a successful offseason and setting themselves up for a rebound year in 2024-25.
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