Devils' Unserious Bottom 6 Needs Major Retooling

For the second consecutive season, the New Jersey Devils' bottom 6 remains a major liability. They cannot ignore fixing it again.

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Yesterday, I was listening to the Sunday Special of The Hockey PDOcast. Of course, there was some New Jersey Devils talk, as there is more often than not. And of course, Dimitri Filipovic and Thomas Drance spoke about the team’s forward depth for a bit.

Long story short, but Dimitri more or less called the Devils’ forward depth “unserious.” I can’t say I disagree with that sentiment, because for the second season in a row, the team’s bottom-six isn’t any good.

Let’s look at the bottom-six struggles and what options the Devils and general manager Tom Fitzgerald could have to address them.

Devils Bottom 6 Is a Major Liability

Devils head coach Sheldon Keefe has used different combos in the bottom six due to injuries, but most haven’t worked, except for the brief time Arseny Gritsyuk was on the third or fourth line.

For the last few games, the Devils’ fourth line has consisted of Juho Lammikko, Luke Glendening and Stefan Noesen. Let’s just say that it hasn’t gone well.

Though the sample size is small (21 minutes), Lammikko, Glendening and Noesen have an expected goals share (xG%) of 13.6 percent and have been outscored 2-0. That’s not going to cut it, but they’re just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to bottom-six line combos.

Here are some of the Devils’ other most common bottom-six line combos and how they’ve fared this season:

• Paul Cotter, Glendening & Noesen: 35.3 xG%

• Cotter, Cody Glass & Connor Brown: 20 xG%

• Halonen, Glendening & Cotter: 26.7 xG%

• Cotter, Glendening & Lammikko: 31.3 xG%

None of these lines has played more than 35 minutes together, but those results are horrific, no matter how you slice them. One example of a bottom-six line faring well was Gritsyuk, Glass and Brown, who had a 57.1 xG% as a trio, but that’s the exception.

Those four line combos in the bullets above have also been outscored 6-1 this season. Not only are they getting killed at five-on-five, but they’re not even getting lucky goals. They’re essentially a black hole.

It’s enough to affect the team’s five-on-five numbers, too. With a better bottom six, they’d likely be above 50 percent in expected goals as a team.

That’s because most of the Devils’ top-six lines have performed quite well this season. The current first unit of Timo Meier, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt has an xG% of 57. Meanwhile, the current second line of Gritsyuk, Dawson Mercer and Ondřej Palát has an xG% of 61.

Other top-six combos include Meier, Hischier and Mercer, who had an xG% of 52.6 before getting broken up and Palát, Jack Hughes and Bratt, who had an xG% of 56.4.

I think you get the point. Top six: very good, and bottom six: very bad. I’m highly confident it’s the players and not the coach, too, since the third and fourth lines had good numbers when Gritsyuk was at the bottom of the lineup early in the season.

Glendening is not an NHL-caliber forward, and neither is Lammikko. Cotter’s been the Devils’ worst forward this season, and Noesen hasn’t looked the same since offseason surgery.

Glass is the only bottom-six forward who’s been consistently a net-positive, and Brown has had his moments, too. It doesn’t help that Evgenii Dadonov has missed most of the season due to injury, because he’d probably be of help.

Still, this is the byproduct of not addressing what you needed to address this offseason, and it only becomes more difficult to fill the gaps in-season. Still, some options should emerge as we get closer to the trade deadline.

Who Could the Devils Target to Upgrade the Bottom 6?

The Devils will have to address these issues through the trade market. There’s no other way because they don’t have the necessary internal options.

Ryan O’Reilly is the perfect target for the Devils, but the Nashville Predators’ ask of a first-round pick and an A-level prospect is insane. Unless GM Barry Trotz comes down from his ask, that’s a pass.

The parity in the NHL to begin this season has made for a slow trade market, but other teams with viable options should emerge. One of those is the Columbus Blue Jackets. While they’re still very much in the race, they seem like a decent bet to fall off at some point.

There are a couple of targets in Columbus that make sense for the Devils, those being Boone Jenner and Charlie Coyle. Both players are in the final years of their contracts and could get dealt if the Blue Jackets don’t plan to re-sign them.

Jenner has struggled with injuries, but he’s a productive player when available. Unlike in Columbus, where he plays up the lineup, he’d have a clear role as the Devils’ third-line center. I imagine he’d cost something like a second-round pick and a B-level prospect to acquire.

Coyle is another intriguing target. He’s on pace for 57 points this season and can play on second or third lines depending on the health of the Devils’ centers. The price to acquire him should be similar to Jenner’s.

Another team to keep an eye on is the New York Islanders. Jean-Gabriel Pageau is injured, but he’d also upgrade the 3C position for the Devils. He finished with 14 goals and 42 points a season ago and was on pace for 44 points before getting hurt in late November.

Pageau is the ideal third-line center. He can chip in offense, is excellent in the faceoff dot, kills penalties, and is a stout defender at five-on-five. I imagine the price to acquire him would be a second or third-round pick and a lesser asset.

Fitzgerald Must Address Shallow Forward Depth

If Gritsyuk and Mercer cook with Jack Hughes once he returns from his non-hockey hand injury, the Devils might not need a top-six winger. That could leave the door open for Fitzgerald to add another winger for the third line.

David Pagnotta already connected the Devils to Blake Coleman, so he’s one option. Hypothetical scenario, but let’s say they acquire Coleman and Pageau, the Devils’ forward group should be significantly improved:

• Meier - Hischier - Bratt

• Gritsyuk - Hughes - Mercer

• Coleman - Pageau - Dadonov

• Palát - Glass - Brown

Out are Cotter and Noesen, who I could easily see the Devils moving; I would not be shocked if Noesen is a cap casualty when Johnathan Kovacevic returns, but that’s an article for another day. Obviously, Glendening and Lammikko are out too, but they can be placed on waivers without much issue.

There are other paths to improving the roster, like acquiring a big fish (Jordan Kyrou?) to push players down the lineup, but redoing the bottom six on the fly is one option, too.

The bottom line is there’s too much deadweight in the bottom six again. It’s the most pressing issue facing the Devils. Their top six, no matter the combos, is generally performing quite well, but the bottom six has been a major liability.

If Fitzgerald can improve the bottom of the lineup, this team can be a Stanley Cup contender. Whether that’s acquiring more top-six help and pushing other players down the lineup or just better bottom-six forwards, improving the forward depth should be trade priority No. 1.

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