Devils' 4 Worst Contracts Heading Into 2024-25
The New Jersey Devils don't have a poisonous contract, but that could change if underperformance and injuries strike again in 2024-25
Follow us on Twitter: @AlexC_NJD, @NJD_OnTheRush
Late last week, we looked at the New Jersey Devils’ best contracts on their books. They're fortunate to have their three best players among the best deals in the NHL, but that doesn't mean they don't have some contracts that look or could become problematic.
I wouldn't go as far as to say the Devils have a poisonous contract on their salary cap, but a few look like they could cause some problems, even with the salary cap projected to rise above $100 million in the next few years.
4. Dougie Hamilton
Contract: 4 years remaining, $9 million AAV
Dougie Hamilton has been great when he plays. He had a career year in 2022-23, finishing with 22 goals and 74 points in 82 games. But he only appeared in 20 games last season, totaling 16 points — a 66-point pace over 82 games.
The problem with Hamilton is that he's had trouble staying on the ice in his three years with the Devils. Some of it has been bad luck; taking an errant puck to the face and breaking your jaw in 2021-22 is about as bad of luck imaginable.
Hamilton only appeared in 20 games last season due to a torn pectoral he suffered in late November. Availability is the best ability, and the Devils need Hamilton to play 75-plus games this coming season. When he plays, he's worth $9 million a year, but only appearing in 164 of a possible 246 games over the last three seasons will hurt his value.
Dom's model at The Athletic had Hamilton's market value at $4.1 million last season. Obviously, the injury played a factor, but a repeat of 2022-23 will erase any concerns about his contract.
3. Timo Meier
Contract: 7 years remaining, $8.8 million AAV
Injuries were a significant reason Timo Meier struggled for two-thirds of the 2023-24 season, but the good news is that Meier did show signs of life over the final month and a half or so of the year.
After struggling through his first 43 games and totaling just 22 points, Meier went on a tear to finish 2023-24 with 18 goals and 30 points across his final 26 contests. The high-volume shooting returned, and he looked more like the high-end skater we expected him to be.
Meier revealed at his exit interview that he was dealing with double MCL injuries earlier in the season. That'll obviously affect his skating, and it's no wonder he looked better over his final 26 games of 2023-24 when his skating returned to form.
Dom's model had Meier's market value at $4.7 million last season, but I don't have much long-term concern if the final 26 games are closer to what he looks like in 2024-25. He should come off this list next summer.
2. Ondřej Palát
Contract: 3 years remaining, $6 million AAV
I know many of you were expecting to see Ondřej Palát at No. 1 on this list, but here's a bit of a surprise. There's no doubt he hasn't lived up to the contract. Injuries cost him a good chunk of the 2022-23 season, but even last season, the counting totals weren't up to par for someone with a $6 million AAV.
However, Palát is still a pretty good player. He's totaled an expected goals share (xG%) of 57.2 percent across his first two years as a Devil, and he was one of their best defensive forwards last season. His even-strength defense was worth an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 3.7, ranked second among Devils forwards to Erik Haula.
When looking at Palát's RAPM chart for last season, there's reason to believe he still has something left in the tank offensively:
Dom had Palát's market value at $4.7 million last season, which isn't far from his $6 million AAV. The reason I have him at No. 2 over Hamilton and Meier is because their counting totals have come closer to matching their AAVs than Palát.
The Devils could probably find better ways to use that $6 million AAV, but Palát is not a bad player. If he posts similar defensive impacts this season but totals 45-50 points, that's close to a $6 million player.
1. Jonas Siegenthaler
Contract: 4 years remaining, $3.4 million AAV
The Devils were right to re-sign Jonas Siegenthaler to a five-year contract extension at an AAV of $3.4 million, but the first year of his new deal did not go well. Siegenthaler struggled mightily last season and was one of the Devils' worst players.
Missing Hamilton, Siegenthaler's main defense partner over the last two seasons, surely didn't help. But let's not sugarcoat things; Siegenthaler was a mess. His rush defense fell off a cliff, and he had trouble defending the net front and opposing forechecks.
Per Dom's model, Siegenthaler had a net rating of -8 last season. That was worth a market value of $800,000, making him a borderline NHL player.
Dom's net rating metric isn't the only one that showed Siegenthaler struggled last season, too. He finished with a GAR of -10.9 and a wins above replacement (WAR) of -1.8, meaning he wasn't even a replacement-level player by those metrics.
The 2024-25 campaign is a big one for Siegenthaler. Barring something unforeseen in the next couple of weeks, the Devils are betting on him bouncing back.
A healthy Hamilton would go a long way, but it's on Siegenthaler to play better, too. Brenden Dillon is not a lock to be a surplus-value player, so Siegenthaler needs to show he can contribute in a top-four role again.
Devils Have Avoided Poisonous Contracts…So Far
None of these contracts are terrible, but they could become problematic if injuries and underperformance strike again. The good news is Hamilton and Meier are prime bounce-back candidates, while Palát is still a solid player whose contract could be much worse.
Even Siegenthaler's deal isn't completely onerous since he has a $3.4 million AAV, but he needs to be much better for the Devils to justify keeping him beyond this season. If so, they won't have many problem contracts, and that's a good place to be in.
Thanks for reading and supporting my independent writing project about the New Jersey Devils. If you haven’t subscribed, please consider doing so:
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey
I feel like Macdermid should get an honorary mention here. While his salary isn’t that high at $1.15M/yr, 3 years seems like a long term for a guy who was basically brought in to glare a Rempe for 4 games a season. He really doesn’t have a lot of upside otherwise.
I don't think Hamilton or Timo belong on this list, just because of Dom's model. I'd put Dillon's contract over both of theirs - I think he's going to provide less value than Palat, and the term and AAV are too high.